a bitcoin update you shouldn't miss

[0:00]A long awaited Bitcoin update is here. So, a bunch of things happened. I have not been here. I've actually been in Paris Blockchain Week and I've been traveling a lot and I'm going to travel today as well. Um, so that's why I did not update you on on on a lot of things that happened. And also quite frankly, I've got a little bit tired. I'm going to tell you at the end of the video, but ultimately, there are a lot of things happening. One of the most important things is that I'm still not buying it. I'm telling you that there is going to be grounds boots on the ground. I do think there's going to be an invasion. I do think that the markets won't like it. I do think that the market is pricing in a cease fire or has been pricing in a cease fire. I do think that today's open New York open is going to be a blood bath. And I do think that this is nothing else but a trap for retail. This is an elevator down, staircase up, which eventually will result in a staircase down as well. So uh ultimately, I'm I'm I am looking for for short positions, but there is an opportunity to take longs as well. Let me run through a couple of things. One is the following. If you look at the daily time frame, this came back um uh to 50%, right? Markets always retrace 50%. You can look at this from any any more you know angles, 50%. You can look at it this like with 50%. You can look at it this like 50%. So I've been running through this a lot of times if you've been following the channel, the 50% is where the market always retraces. Once that happened, you want to look for if you're shorting, you want to look for a premium zone, which is above the 50%. And if you're longing, you want to look below, which is the discount zone. Always want to buy in discount, always want to sell in premium, it's very simple. So when you have a 50% retrace, especially after on a daily chart, you want to see a four-hour or an hourly market structure shift. In this scenario, this would be considered, even though there is no three consecutive candles, I would consider this a very strong four-hour low. Because this was the the the level that resulted in liquidity taken both in these double tops. It came right into this higher time frame auto block. So this level down here is a very, very, very strong level. Meaning, if this plays out, which I think it will, that means that it is GG and we're coming back targeting all these order blocks, which could result in a balance, but liquidity draw is most likely down here at about 63, $65,000 and then possibly even wick this through about up 60. So this is what I'm ultimately looking for, and for that, I need to see a four-hour market structure. Now, whether that market structure happens like this, which I think it's most likely because if you look at the hourly, there there is already an hourly market construction shift here, a clear market construction shift on the hourly. So either it just comes back to this OB and rejects from there with a 15-minute market structure shift, this is one of my triggers for a massive short position. Or it doesn't do a 15-minute market structure shift, and it comes all the way higher here, all the way into this order block, and does a rejection around here after the 50% retrace. This is also very likely, so I don't know which one is going to happen, but whenever a 15-minute market structure shift is happening, I am going to short this. I'm actually going to let you know in the community, there is this Telegram community, join in. I just post my thoughts, link in the description. So, um, so basically what happens is is is I do believe we're going lower. So there is a one-hour market structure shift. But also, I want to say that this whole thing was was the result of the ceasefire which lasted two days, and then uh the US just bombed an Iranian uh commercial oil tanker. So, I mean it's kind of torpedoed. So, it's kind of, you know, escalating and I do believe again that there will be boots on the ground. So a short is due, especially we're up in the daily higher uh uh uh a daily premium zone. From there we there was a level that took massive liquidity, which is down here at about 73,300. Um, uh, I'm going to look at the total in a second. There is a one-hour market structure shift already indicating that we are going to see a dump. So either I'm actually also thinking about we'll see what happens today. I'm traveling as well. But ultimately, I'm also uh uh considering taking a short position. This would not be a stupid short position at all. You can also put the stop loss up above this this order block up here. So if you look here, and uh and keep this at a five 6% stop loss and target all the way down here at sub 60,000. This is what I am considering doing, but I'm rather going to wait for a market structure shift and then take it going based on that. I will let you know in the community when I do so. Uh, why do I say that there can be long positions? The reason is because if you look at the hourly uh uh if you look at the four-hour chart, there is no three clear break down here, and there is a 15-minute market structure shift to the upside and a 50% retrace. So if you look at this, this is a clear 50 uh what is it, a 15-minute market structure shift, and then there is a retrace. So ultimately, I can see this start pushing and taking liquidity on the hourly chart, all this built up. So it can come back to the 50% leg of the hourly, which would be at around. Oh, it actually might come back to this OB at 76,000. Yeah, it comes back to this OB potentially wicks through, makes a market structure shift between 76 and 76,500 somewhere here, and then rejecting that is the most likely scenario in my opinion. So you could potentially play longs as well. I'm just not confident what is it confident doing that. Macro is not showing that, the chart is not saying that, so I'm just not taking long positions. Oil, I have taken an oil long throughout the week. I actually have shorted this up here. That was a very, very clear market structure shift here. Uh, very clear, look at this. On the 15-minute, I mean this could not be clearer. You have a five four consecutive candles closed above, uh come down. This is where I actually shorted um uh the market. I shorted it all the way down here and I didn't share it. I'm going to tell you why I didn't then we're going to get there in a second. But ultimately, I have done that and I have longed oil as well. So I have longed oil down here. I do think that there is going to be a great opportunity for it to come back. I longed it at about 87 somewhere here on two bit. Um, so that I let me just see. Actually, I don't think I'm locked in. So, so this uh, so I longed it around here, but I do believe that whatever drop happens on oil is a drop to long and I do think that oil is coming back filling this gap at least at 102, at least at 102 but ready to take in all this at 110. I do think oil is in for a great rally. This is not even close to being over. We're going to see how it goes. And then I wanted to share with you as well, the the TA session is done. So so um if you want to leave this, that's fine. But if you want to watch this further, a lot of people actually DM me and they're like, there was no update. There was no update on Friday. There was first of all, I was traveling, second, I'm a little bit sick, but third, I'm a little bit tired and that's the truth. Not only because of the nature of the market, but also because I genuinely I I was sitting and thinking a lot and I saw this people taking stop losses and I gave a trade and then people take it and they get liquidated and it somehow had a feeling of like, you know, the only reason why we do it is because we want to have the community. That's genuinely why I do every show a day. I this community 15,000 members. Guys, people are charging you know hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of dollars of the offer that I share in this free community. Free. And so getting these accusations of like, oh you're rigging your community this and that and I get liquidated. I actually had a thought of like, you know, whether that makes any sense what we're actually doing or we just do more damage because people don't understand and they need more education. Um, and so so so I kind of took a break and I'm still on a verge of like, should I even continue doing this to be very honest with you. Uh, without education because people will always be wrecked and destroyed and they will be destroyed elsewhere as well. But if you don't have proper risk management, if you're not listening to what I'm saying and you just go on your own thing and you do your own thing and then you come and complain that screws with my brain, that screws with your brain and it liquidates you and there is no point in doing that. So, so I have taken a short position. I have taken the oil long. Um, the reason again why I haven't told you is because I just took this break. Um, let me know in the comment section what you think like genuinely, it's not just say, hey, let me know in the comment section. I'm I'm reading all the comments as well. So just let me know if if if we should keep doing these updates and if they help and what you think and you know, all that good news, bad news, whatever that is, but that's the honest truth and I told you from the very beginning, best three years we've been together here is that I'm I can do one thing and be transparent and and and just be honest with you. And this is the honest truth. So I have still considering, I'm going to go travel to an institutional meetup. Um, I'm going to do that as well and then we're going to get back here. I'm going to read the comments and then we're going to re-evaluate what we're doing, but I see that we need more education and people just simply don't. Um, I also need to sit back and, you know, I know we're going to get a lot of comments, fuck the haters. We're just fine. It's just, you know. Anyway, I think I've spent way too much time on this. Much love to you guys. Uh, ultimately, I am looking for a short position. I do think the first signal for the short is is is is there. One-hour break. I do think we're going to get a retrace and then from there on a smash down in New York open. Uh, so be alert. I'm actually going to be flying. I'm going to be landing just before New York open. So, yeah. I'll see you in the next one, guys. Let me know in the comments. Ciao ciao.