[0:07]Hey everyone, and welcome to your daily update for SOL and BTC. Liquidity's pretty even on the daily, just as we've sort of been ranging in this quite tight pattern for the last 24 hours, so you've got about the same amount of people opening longs as they are shorts.
[0:20]The um targets on the heat maps on the daily, what just happened there? Okay, we're back.
[0:26]The uh, the targets here on the daily are pretty much exactly what we're seeing on the charts as far as if we were to take a bit of a bounce up or if we were to take a bit of a dip down.
[0:37]So down to that sort of 63 area, still in play, up to about 70K, still in play. If we get a good close today, we could bring that 78K target back on uh, on the table.
[0:49]There is also a possibility of been able to um, basically reject off 70, bounce off the low 60s and then go back up. So, um, there's a big trend that looks like it's shifting today, so
[1:03]Yeah, we'll jump into the charts. Have a look and see what we can find. So, SOL BTC on the daily just looks nasty to be honest.
[1:14]Um, it's right at the bottom of the range now. So any kind of close under this 11804, yeah, that sort of area there is just definitely more bearish. It's just under all the range levels, under the trends, under the prior broken trend.
[1:25]So that would sort of be what we're looking for, but we are already kind of in the bottom of the little internal range, so we could get a wee bit of a move back up to the upside, um, just as sort of a bit of a retrace.
[1:36]Uh, but yeah, we're only about halfway through the bigger downwards range. Now, I was looking at the monthly on this, and I think just the other thing that's a little bit trollish at the moment,
[1:48]is just that they are hovering around the monthly trend. So they haven't gone back up and done the retest of the broken um, break to the top side.
[1:59]They haven't retested the backside of the new support trend that came in, or tested, I should say, and they haven't tested this monthly trend either.
[2:05]And if we look at it on a low time frame, it's just a complete troll that it's just kind of hovering along over top of it. So we might see a wick down into this and then a move to the upside, some kind of, you know, great tweet news or whatever.
[2:18]But it's uh, yeah, just, it is hovering along support. Okay, let's have a look at the safety assets.
[2:29]Okay, so looking at the safety assets, really we just do not want it to close up over this range trend, so staying below 70.11 is pretty important.
[2:40]Uh, if it pulls down anymore before the end of the day, that's good. But there is the chance that it can create a range off this candle, which uh, would mean 70.04.
[2:51]Could send it up, but uh, it's still sitting about that 50%, so not really bearish yet, not really bullish either, just kind of in the middle.
[3:06]Uh, let's see what we got. Bigger stuff, weekly still hasn't hit the range trend yet, so we haven't had that sort of touch rejection that we should get if we uh, were to spike up a little bit.
[3:14]And monthly is just compressed with a very long time to go. Right, let's check out the totals.
[3:25]So for the totals on the daily, we really just want to be closing up over that 2.01 at a minimum. That kind of gets it out of this uh, little wedge between the control candle.
[3:37]Um, and the trend, so, um, and then if we want to get a little bit better, it would be a close over about 2.02.
[3:49]Uh, as it currently stands, it's uh, yeah, it's sort of just hit the range level and then dropped back down through the trend.
[3:54]But it hasn't really broken anything or hard closed anything, so if it gets back up over that before the end of the day, that could be seen as a little bit bullish.
[4:05]If it doesn't, it's still not really the end of the world, it's just uh, probably going to spend some more time around here. Uh, looking at the weekly, we're still just bouncing off the weekly trend.
[4:16]And the monthly is just kind of in limbo, hasn't really hit the range level below it, hasn't really hit the uh, break level above it, it's just kind of sitting on the trend.
[4:30]Looking at a bit more risky version. So we've come down, bounced the range trends, bounced the origins. You do sort of want to see this get back up above 659.64, so that means it was a bit more of a liquidity grab than an actual uh, trend continuation.
[4:50]Um, and you really can't be all that bullish on it if it closes below 664, because that's uh, going to mean that it is definitely trying to create the next step in the range to the downside, so it's going to see if it can get back up over that.
[5:07]If for whatever freak reason it has some kind of full reversal before the end of the day and ends up back up over the trend, then, yeah, it'll just hit up under this top side box.
[5:17]Okay. And just bouncing between the trends on the weekly. And we haven't actually hit the origin support on the monthly either.
[5:32]So we're bouncing off the top side of the resistance trend. So it could just continue up from here, but if it does take another dip down and hit the uh, hit that 621 level,
[5:46]then that should just send it straight back up again, given it's come from the top side of the trend. Right, let's have a look at SOL.
[5:55]Well, SOL on the low time frame is just compressing, which uh, given we've got about an hour and a half to go before the end of the day, doesn't make it that great.
[6:06]It would be pretty hard for it to get out of here, so unless there's a bit of a sudden spike in volume. Uh, looking at the one hour, same thing, under the origins, wrong side of trends.
[6:21]Just doesn't look like it's going to be doing too much. Four hour, if the four hour closes up at the end of the day, we'll, we'll get some kind of trend break, so that, uh, that could kick off these retests.
[6:30]Because on the lower time frame, if we just look at where the liquidity sitting and just have a look at the pending um, obligations, we've, we've got reason to come up and do this uh, 80, 81, 82.
[6:44]Maybe 83 when we look at the higher time frame, but uh, first thing we need to do is get this trend break. So we've bounced off the origin. Uh, we've created a little interior uptrend.
[6:56]And now we just need to uh, break the downtrend and hit up to do some retests. And looking at the daily, this could be why they're trying to keep it stuck in that little 15-minute range.
[7:07]Uh, daily really needs to get back up over these levels. Now, yes, it can recover them, but just given how bearish the market is overall, you don't really want it to be closing down here. You sort of just want a little bit of a sign of life been given to it.
[7:26]So some kind of close up over 79 and a half, or preferably, you know, even about a 79.6 close would be a decent start. We're also going to end up breaking
[7:40]at least another one level up there at 81.497 today as well. So that's uh, something else to keep an eye out for.
[7:49]Because if it does go up to do a retest of um, that level or maybe even the backside of the trend there, which is about 82, any kind of move up into that area could be just another point of rejection.
[8:02]Unless it closes back up inside of it tomorrow. Uh, looks like we might shift quite a big trend too. Just scroll out of it. Come back in.
[8:12]Yeah, looks like we're breaking that daily trend. So the wick is long enough on the bottom here that uh, when when the trend shifts, it's going to be in a supportive position.
[8:23]Um, but still, breaking trends, looking bearish. Um, looking at the weekly, it's, it was pushed down before the end of the week and opened on the wrong side of the trend, so
[8:35]Although that would make a lot of sense for it to pump up here to 87, it's got three more days of doing it anytime it wants, and it will probably still end up coming back down, just, just purely because it's coming from the wrong side of the train.
[8:50]Uh, what really needs to happen is these trends need to break and shift into a supportive position below. And the monthly is currently just in absolute limbo.
[9:01]So hasn't gone up. So it's very similar to the uh, risk totals, it hasn't gone up to actually do any of the retests of any of the resistance above. Uh, it's broken a couple of levels up here around 93 and 95.
[9:14]So there's actually three probably key levels if, if we are to get some kind of um, uh, retrace. We've basically got 93, 95 and 117.
[9:26]And they're all just levels that uh, should be at some point retested, and then just above that we've got 120, so, yeah, we just need to actually do something.
[9:37]Basically this needs to hit a support so that it can actually bounce, or it needs to hit a resistance so it can actually dump. At the moment it's just uh, it's just nothing, so. Right, let's have a look at the bigger stuff.
[9:50]Okay, so this is where stuff starts to get quite interesting. So, we have a possible trend break today. Uh, it's a kind of an awkward candle.
[10:04]If we were to go up to say 80, we would be above the trend. Uh, so when the trend gets created, by being a blue candle, it'll move would be above it.
[10:17]And, uh, we could bounce. Now, the problem is if it goes up too much, it's a yellow candle and then it doesn't move the trend into support, so that's uh, not necessarily the best thing.
[10:27]The, if it goes down or open say 70, what are we at now? We're about 79 at the moment.
[10:38]If this opens around 79, it can create the trend, but beyond the wrong side of the trend and then that actually causes potentially a dump down to uh, down to about 60.
[10:47]So, the other subtle thing is that all the way over here, we've got just the uh, the wick of this range candle, which actually is kind of holding the price up at the moment as well.
[10:59]So, yeah, it's a bit of a tough one because here or maybe half a, half a dollar cheaper, pretty bearish, you know, could easily come down. The level that would be the most important would be 77.5 though.
[11:11]If you close under 77.5 today, that's very bad, so. And it wouldn't take much for them to uh, do a bit of a troll and send it down there.
[11:21]Now, if it goes up, and why would it go up? Because it is actually a break. It's a break of these upper levels. So that gives us a 120 level, which gets broken today.
[11:32]It gives us a 95 level, which uh, gets broken today. Uh, we have done this initial bounce off the backside of the uh, 95 level, but if we can stay above the trend, and that candle does close below,
[11:47]there's a good chance that it'll just bounce back up there and tag that uh, 95 again. Okay. So long as it doesn't take it down too much and put it under the trend. Right.
[30:25]It's still looking alright, from the wrong side of everything though, and it's got a few days to go.
[30:38]Uh, still have retested that trend. There's a lot of reasons why SOL could take another decent dump to the downside.
[30:48]Even if it's just to fix the SOL BTC chart, and then catch up to BTC later, as BTC might start to push up.
[30:56]Nothing completed there. Same one. Yep. And this is kind of where we're stuck. There's a little, um, three-hour origin just running across here, uh, at 79.656 on SOL as well, so it could reject from that, uh, tomorrow if it starts to push up.
[31:16]Or it might push up through it, through the range trend, et cetera, then reject down just to be a little bit of a grabber of liquidity before coming down.
[31:25]Uh, if it gets up over these levels, starts closing candles and opening new ones, et cetera, then it's going to keep moving up to do the retest. Okay, that's us. All right, we'll uh, see how this thing closes in the next 15 minutes and uh, if they want to take another dump, they will position accordingly.
[31:44]And if they uh, want to go up and do those retest and grab some more liquidity before doing a real big dump, then um, I'm sure they'll position accordingly for that. So we'll see how it goes and uh, yeah, catch you again on the next one.
