How Trump could try to steal the midterms | The Economist

[0:00]What happens if Donald Trump tries to steal the midterms? The president is already laying the groundwork, and Democrats in Congress are wargaming dozens of ways he could try. It's likely the Republicans will lose the House and possibly the Senate, too. That would tank Trump's legislative agenda, bring two years of investigations and hearings, and maybe even a third impeachment. It might seem excessive to worry about the lengths he could go to avoid that if it weren't for his previous election stealing attempts. I just want to find 11,780 votes. He's hinted he could try again this time around. Cheating is rampant in our elections, and we're going to stop it. So what could Trump actually do? Among Democrats' biggest fear is that he could order federal immigration agents into polling places to suppress turnout by minorities. Lots of Republicans might consider sending ICE agents to the polls legitimate. They believe large numbers of foreigners illegally vote in American elections. In reality, that kind of fraud is extremely rare. The worry is that Ice would instead deter lawful voters. Then there are ways that Trump could meddle after the vote. If Democrats win comfortably, there's just not much Trump could do. Where it gets dicey is if control of either chamber comes down to a small handful of tight races. Because mail-in ballots skew Democratic and take longer to process, the count tends to shift towards Democrats as it goes on. In 2020, Trump responded to exactly that shift by demanding that counting stop. We might already have had a glimpse of what that could look like this time. Earlier this year, FBI agents seized 700 boxes of material from the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia. The FBI seems to be investigating debunked conspiracy theories about counterfeit ballots. Interrupting a count would be a much more nightmarish scenario. It could disrupt ballots "chain of custody," making it impossible to know whether votes had been tampered with. But neither of these options is likely to work for Trump. Federal law bans sending armed agents to polling places. There's also the risk of an electoral backlash. If ICE is seen to be intimidating voters, that could actually drive Democratic turnout. Get the f*** out of here. Seizing ballots would also be difficult. For a judge to approve a warrant, the government would need to show probable cause that a crime had been committed. And the Constitution gives the president no role in election administration. That power belongs to the states. The courts have blocked all of Trump's election interventions so far. But this doesn't mean Trump's meddling is without a cost. Before the 2024 election, 44% of Americans said they were fairly or very confident their elections were fair. That is now 25%. A majority of Republicans still think he beat Joe Biden in 2020. Fight for Trump. As so often with Donald Trump, it's impossible to know whether his critics are being paranoid or preparing rationally. But the likeliest outcome in November isn't a stolen election. It's a legitimate one that millions of Americans don't believe in.