[0:00]Bro, I'm telling you, I think a lot of people don't understand how fascism works. I think a lot of people don't understand the ideology, what fascist movements have looked like historically, what it looks like when it's dying in its final stage. You don't have to read about it in a history book any longer. You can visualize it in front of you. Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Straight of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have! President DONALD J. TRUMP Yeah, this post by him is an admission that he doesn't have the cards. If he had power, he wouldn't be crying on True Social. Exactly.
[0:34]We have more goals to complete and we will achieve them either by agreement or by renewing the fighting. We are prepared to return to fighting at any moment necessary. Our finger is on the trigger.
[0:49]They should send Nick Shirley to Islamabad with JD Vance to negotiate. Yeah, maybe a bus, a Rokshi could teach Nick Shirley how to speak English. That could be cool. Social to say, quote, All US ships, aircraft, and military personnel with additional ammunition, weaponry, and anything else there is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded enemy will remain in place in and around Iran until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with. Yeah, Galibaf, speaker of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Parliament, said the made these three conditions and now is saying time is running out for the record, just now. Once again, the cards are in their hands here, okay? The only pressure that I could foresee them getting from different country, from outside nation is probably China because China doesn't want to destroy the Gulf. China wants the Gulf to not be destroyed. Israel doesn't care about the Gulf being destroyed. Iran might listen to Chinese demands but there is no guarantee that they will actually fully abide by Chinese demands. Because they are unbelievably stubborn when it comes to sovereignty and making sovereign decisions. I encourage the Iranians to come to the table seriously. We've seen some signs that they're going to do that. We've seen some signs of bravado. Fundamentally, we're in a good spot. They're reopening the straits, we have a ceasefire and frankly, if they break their into the bargain, then they're going to see some serious co China pressed Iran toward ceasefire, Iranian officials say Beijing appeared to have helped push Tehran to accept the two-week deal with the United States, reflecting China's growing influence and its stake in avoiding a wider war. For years, China has been one of Iran's most important lifelines. China has bought almost all of its oil exports, shielded it diplomatically and helped it weather international isolation. Now, according to three Iranian officials, Beijing has used that influence for a different purpose: to press Iran to accept the ceasefire with the United States. Is this a China L? Um, yes and no. They okay, this is not China demanding that Iran stop blowing up the Gulf because they have interests in the Gulf obviously, that's part of it. But the reason why this is an L is because they're not applying any pressure to Israel and they're not applying any pressure to America through back channels to say, hey, you have to, you have to, you know, cut a separate deal here that actually makes sense for Iran. China should be applying infinitely more open pressure to the state of Israel for spoiling the ceasefire deal. A ceasefire deal that they're aggressively pursuing, and they're aggressively pursuing the ceasefire deal because Israel doesn't give a fuck about the GCC. If it blows up, it blows up, they don't care. They're crazy. And America has some obviously, has a lot of interest in the GCC remaining intact. China has the most amount of interest in the GCC remaining intact. The only actor that's spoiling this deal is Israel, and the only demand that Iran has that America is not abiding by as far as we've seen is literally bringing Israel to heal. It's crazy, but the assessment here is unironically that the entire world is basically begging America to put Israel in its place, okay? And Israel's like, nope, we're unbound and America saying, yes, yes, sir.
[4:00]You do whatever you do, okay? They need to put the shock collar on Israel go Israel place. A dynamic so insane that it lends credence to Zog style theories for the uninitiated. It's it's unbelievable. It's unbelievable that America still hasn't been like, all right, dude, you got to restrain yourself a little bit. Like, this is out of control. CBS, Trump had been told the ceasefire would apply to the Middle East, and he agreed it included Lebanon. Mediators, Iran's foreign minister, and Pakistan's Prime Minister also believed it did. The US position reportedly shifted after a call between Netanyahu and Trump. Oh my God, I'm done. I can't do this. I can't do this anymore. This is so crazy. It's just it doesn't I don't know what to say. I I don't know what to say. I I it doesn't make any sense at all, dude. It does not make any sense at all. This is so far beyond the unsinkable aircraft carrier theory.
[5:00]It's it's unbelievable. We don't hold the cards. We are incapable of achieving our strategic military objectives. We are staring down the barrel of a ten if not 20 year potential failed occupation of a country with 93 million people that will be devastating that it'll destroy the world's energy supply for 20% of all energy that passes through the Straight of Hormuz. None of this makes sense, and we're literally just throwing it all out there for little old Israel, you know? This is important ambition for Israel. They have to they have this this unlimited appetite for death and destruction. It's ridiculous. Multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News that the President Trump told the ceasefire would apply to the Middle East region and he agreed that it included Lebanon. Mediators believed the ceasefire to include Lebanon, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan announced it did.
[5:54]Iran's foreign minister also said it was included. On the day of the ceasefire, a White House official told CBS News that Israel had also agreed with the terms of the deal that Pakistan had helped to broker. However, the US position shifted following a phone call between Netanyahu and Mr. Trump. Two sources familiar told CBS News that the changing US positions and the disjointed regime in Iran are making the diplomacy highly complex. Vice President JD Vance told reporters Wednesday that there was a legitimate misunderstanding about the terms of the ceasefire but he placed blame on the Iranians for misunderstanding that it included their proxy forces in Lebanon. It's becoming increasingly difficult to deny the critical role Israel plays in the US decisions about this war. It's it's insane. Because guys, guys, I'm going to keep it a buck 50 with you, okay? Many of you are already aware of this but maybe there are some newcomers here who are confused. We have lost this war. We are losing this war, we're still continuing to lose this war, we lost it already. The moment that Iraq closed the Straight of Hormuz and started bombing the Gulf states and America could not successfully deteriorate its stockpiles, successfully atrate its strike capabilities, it was over. And Iran knows it. Iran holds all the cards. And the only reason why Iran was down to engage in this ceasefire instead of continuing to establish military deterrence by striking Israel over and over again with successive strikes that have a higher degree of penetrating the entire defense systems that Israel has. The only reason why they stopped doing that is because China applied pressure to them, because China doesn't want to lose 20% of the entire oil, the world's energy supply including a big chunk of where China gets its oil from. It's the Gulf. The entire Asian markets get their oil and gas from the Gulf. Iran, if it wasn't for China, would not stop at this point. I don't think Iran will stop until they run out of ammunition. America has been begging Iran to take any deal whatsoever. Doesn't matter what they're saying publicly. Of course, they're posturing as though they're like dominating Iran in daylight but in broad daylight but it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Behind closed doors, they've been begging Iran to come to the table to put an end to this madness. Straight up. Because, at least, the more intelligent clear-eyed individuals that are in Trump's orbit recognize that the situation is lost.
[8:08]As I've said, after like week two, even if at that point, even if America somehow magically pulled off an impressive feat and was able to militarily dominate and like win the war against Iran, the damage was done.
[8:24]The damage to America's capabilities of force projection has already been lost. The confidence has already been eroded. The confidence was eroded the moment that Iran started blowing up American bases in the Gulf. And America had no defense for that. It was extra eroded internationally, when America pulled their Thad interceptors from Korea to hastily send it to Israel. Showcasing that they also were running out of critical supply of anti-air defense system uh munitions. They took the batteries out and they brought them to Israel.
[9:00]This means that America was willing to literally take out critical defenses away from around China. Like implying that they're willing to drop their dominance against their number one foreign adversary in an effort to try and defend Israel.
[9:18]These are unbelievable moves. It's it's clear that the United States is overextended. It's very clear that they're overextended. It's very clear that they cannot actually engage in military dominance everywhere around the world in the way that they had successfully uh presented for many, many years. Also, Israeli missile interceptors have also dwindled to double digits. Trump administration official tells Dropsite News. So Israel can't even defend itself successfully. And yet, they're still up this deal. At this point, it's foolish for Iran not to continue this war. It's foolish for Iran not to continue pummeling Israel. The only thing holding them back, I suspect, would be the fact that Israel is crazy enough that they could just nuke Iran potentially, which, again, does not actually stop the pain. It does not stop Iran's capabilities of blowing up Israel continuously with more force and with more successive strikes, especially if their defenses are completely, if the Israeli defenses are completely depleted. So, it is truly the Führer Bunker moment for Benjamin Netanyahu where they're doing a final push, even if that is completely suicidal. It's unbelievably suicidal. America should get ahead of Israel and restrain Israel for Israel's own sake. Not only for its own sake to save face and to not destroy the energy markets around the world but it just does not make any sense.
[10:55]It does not make any sense. Iran holds all the cards. I know that that's not what it looks like if you only read American news but I've been saying this since the end of week one. It was very clear. Once America and Israel started doing their bombing campaigns and Iran kept blowing up Bahrain. Iran kept blowing up Kuwait. Iran kept blowing up the UAE and Saudi Arabia while simultaneously successfully striking Israel over and over again and in the process of the GCC strikes destroying key radar and early advance warning systems shutting off America and Israel's eyes and ears in the region that played a formative role in their defenses so they could calculate missile trajectories ahead of time and successfully intercept them. Once Iran was able to do that, it was over. It's only a matter of time until they are continuously pummeling Israel. If Iran right now dug out enough TELs and do the same volleys that they did on day one. Israel would be done. Israel would receive a punishment that they have never experienced in their lives, especially if they did it in coordination with Hezbollah and Ansarullah, it would be over. So the fact that they're still, the fact that they're still keeping up with this, even if it goes against their safety and security, is understandable if you understand what fascism looks like. It's understandable if you understand what a suicidal ideology, Zionism and because fascism is, but America should be restraining Israel.
[12:30]And yet, America is led by a Philosemetic boomer moron who also is not listening to anybody and is probably dumb enough to think that there's a super secret military campaign that they haven't pulled off yet but they could at any given moment but they just simply didn't for the last 40 days. They had the capacity to do so, America, but they just didn't do it. And that's stupid, right? It's obviously stupid. If they had it, if they were capable of doing this, then they would have. Yeah. A lot of all of that. America doesn't leave soldiers behind. BS only applies when the US is trying to mask their failures with a PR stunt. American troops have been sitting ducks in the Middle East. Their leaders couldn't care less. No fortifications, hiding in hotels, et cetera. It's true. This is so anger inducing. The idea that like Benjamin Netanyahu, like this is the type of shit that I get mad about and think that it's probably happening behind closed doors. But to read it on CBS News, Israel's number one propaganda outlet by the way, is unbearable. It's it's insane. It's insane. Trump says Netanyahu told him he'd low-key it. That's not going to work, is it? Yeah, the Israel Lobby, honestly, has significantly undersold the issue of state capture by organized foreign interests and it's also clearly gotten much worse since then. I suspect an update will be written. I think the Israel Lobby doesn't even explain it any longer. Like, this is this is is is so, so beyond the pale. Obviously, most Americans are cattle and are completely oblivious to everything that's going on and they have no understanding of what this what this means for for the might of the American military, what our capabilities are. They have no way of thinking ahead and they don't even pay attention to what's going on right now. But the fact that like America won't restrain Israel in this moment, whether it be to preserve Israel's safety and security in the long run or at least even in the short run or to preserve their own capabilities of force projection and what remains, is unbelievable. It doesn't make any sense. I'm losing my mind. The US position shifted following a phone call between Netanyahu and Mr. Trump. Two sources familiar told CBS News that the changing US positions and the disjointed regime in Iran are making diplomacy highly complex. Vice President JD Vance told reporters Wednesday that there was a legitimate misunderstanding about the terms of the ceasefire, but he placed blame on the Iranians for misunderstanding that it included their proxy forces in Lebanon. They're literally lying at the behest of Israel. Mearsheimer even said his realist framework no longer works for Israel. It's completely irrational. Yes, the reason why it's completely rational is because Israel's fascist. Israel is a fascist country. It was not rational for Rhodesia to try to do what it did. It was not rational for Nazi Germany to try to do what it did. It's not rational because they're fascist. It's that simple. Fascism is a suicidal death cult. It's a suicidal ideology. At the end of that, you have unlimited appetite for death and destruction against all of these enemies that you are dominating, that you think are lesser than, and ultimately, you're going to fail. You're going to overextend, you're going to bite off more than you can chew, and if you don't actually restrain yourself, eventually, you're going to die. You're going to kill your population. Your regime is going to end. Of course, from my perspective, my personal perspective, I don't want Israel to go through this process because that process is going to be incredibly bloody and incredibly violent for everyone else that's in the crosshairs. So, that's the reason why I'm like America needs to restrain Israel. America needs to to to stop, to to bring Israel to heal. But it's clear that Israel doesn't give a shit, and they just keep pummeling every other country in the region. The Iran ceasefire is already breaking down. Strikes continue. Hormuz is unstable. Forces are on edge. This is not de-escalation, it's a pause inside of a system still moving. Most people think Trump will avoid escalation. That misses the point. He's not choosing freely anymore. Each failed step leaves him with two options. Escalate further or accept a bigger defeat. Exactly. There's one real decision left. Ground operations. Cross that line, long war. Avoid it. Iran consolidates power. Nuclear capability. Leverage over global energy. Either path reshapes the system. What matters now are signals, not statements. US Force movement. Control of Hormuz. Iran's nuclear posture. I'm breaking this down live and taking questions today, 7 PM ET, on my Escalation Trap Substack. So, yeah, I I I do agree with this. Kamal Kharrazi, former Iranian Foreign Minister and senior adviser to Supreme Leader, dies from airstrike injuries. Kharrazi, the head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, has died from injuries sustained in a US-Israeli airstrike on his Tehran home on April 1st. His wife was killed in the initial attack. The 81-year-old served as Iran's foreign minister from 1997 to 2005 and as ambassador to the United Nations from 1989 to 1997. He was a senior adviser to the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and continued in that role under his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei.
[17:03]At the time of the strike, Kharrazi had reportedly been working with Pakistani intermediaries to arrange a direct meeting between Iranian officials and Vice President JD Vance making him a central figure in the diplomatic channel that ultimately produced the fragile ceasefire now under severe strain. Yeah. We No, no, no. Cool, we killed another 81-year-old is what some people in the chat are saying. This is a very significant 81-year-old. What he represented was a pathway towards a ceasefire. So you know Israel killed him for that reason.
[17:53]It doesn't make sense. from a from a perspective of real politics, from a perspective of like a country that wants to remain sovereign, a country that wants to protect its citizens. What Israel is doing in this circumstance is basically signing off on its death sentence. Because eventually, eventually, unless they know something that we don't, and that could very well be the case, like maybe they know exactly how many missiles Iran has remaining. Maybe they've made that calculation and the Iran simply doesn't have the capabilities of like blowing up Israel or maybe they've made the calculation that they could lose like 10,000, 20,000 Israeli citizens in the process before they start nuking Iran, you know, or during the nukes of Iran. I don't know but Israel doesn't have the capabilities of turning Iran into Gaza. They don't. Even alongside the United States of America, if they were to try to do that, they would need significantly larger forces. One might even assume that we don't have the capacity right now, so we'd have to institute a draft. And Israel's still actively and aggressively pushing in that direction because without American troops on the ground, they're not going to be able to successfully stop the Iranian strike. They're not going to be able to do that. Hezbollah fired ballistic missiles all the way down to Tel Aviv and Ashdod. At least one impact site reported. Channel 12 launches from Lebanon to the center. Hezbollah announced 51 operations today. CNN reports on a European diplomat. Trump is pressuring NATO to commit to helping secure the Strait of Hormuz within days. Oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God, they're still doing the same shit. They're still They're still. This is day one shit, buddy. This is this is what you were trying to do on day one and then day two. White House aides got an email last month telling them not to place bets on prediction markets. Multiple sources told CBS News. Press reports had raised concerns about government officials using non-public info to place wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket, said the email from White House Management Office. The warning reminded staff that's a criminal offense, and is also prohibited by government ethics regulations. All White House employees are reminded that the misuse of non-public information by government employees for financial benefit is a very serious offense and will not be tolerated.
