[0:00]Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin. Dubious speculation.
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[0:21]Let's go ahead and jump in. So Bitcoin had a pretty bad week last week.
[0:27]I mean it actually closed the week okay because after sweeping the low, we actually got the weekly close back above the 200 week moving average and I know, you know, this is going to be something we discussed a lot, especially on Twitter Spaces, the idea of sort of sweeping the February low, but then still holding the 200 week by the end of the week.
[0:46]And what it shows is that the Bulls haven't given up yet, at least on losing that 200 week moving average.
[0:53]Now, the reason why this is dubious speculation is because it's still fairly early on in June to know for sure, right? If that is the June low,
[1:04]I would say the odds were better that we closed back above the 200 week moving average, like it's better, there's better odds now, uh, that it was then if you had asked me like a couple of days ago, um,
[1:19]in terms of like the 2018 structure of just sweeping the February low, right? Like you had a low in February, uh, and then a lower low in June where we went back up to the bear market resistance band.
[1:31]So, so look at the similarities. You have the February low in 2018, then you have the June low, and that's kind of the same thing that we have here. You have the February low and the June low, and in between that, you had this rally up to the bear market resistance band in May.
[1:44]Same thing right here. We went slightly above it, but it's a, it's a really similar setup.
[1:48]And what happened back then is that we hung around that those lows for a while around 6K, and then we rallied back up to the bear market resistance band in July, like late July, early August.
[2:01]Again, it's hard to know for sure. Like back then, the low in February was early February, and this time, it was also early February.
[2:09]Back then, the high was in, um, like late April, early May, and in this time, the high was in early May.
[2:18]The low back then was in mid-June, right? It was like mid to late June.
[2:24]So far, this is a fairly early low in June.
[2:30]So, you know, I, I can't, well, while I do think Bitcoin will form a low in June,
[2:38]I mean, I could be wrong about that, by the way. Let's not forget I could be wrong. The, the main thing I think is that the, the final low likely happens in Q4.
[2:47]But my guess is that a low forms in June, and and then there's another drop like kind of like later on in the year, um,
[2:59]A lot of times what happens, by the way, for Bitcoin is there's a big drop going into June, and then volatility kind of like dies off a little bit.
[3:07]Like, yeah, you get a rally back up to the bear market resistance band potentially, like you got, you know, back then as well.
[3:17]But the volatility really dries up. So, kind of what happens in bear markets is you get your, your kind of your first big drop, your first big drop, and then you get these counter trend rallies where people are still kind of excited.
[3:32]But then as you get your drop into June, and like a lot, usually what happens is then volatility dries up for the summer, right? So then like no one's around for the summer.
[3:42]And the markets, while if you're, if you're living it day to day, it can certainly feel like a big bounce.
[3:48]But when you look back on it, many years later, like, all right, that volatility mostly dried up. Like if you guys remember in 2022, the, the rally that we had by Bitcoin right here, like it doesn't really look like anything.
[4:04]But back then, that was the rally we had into the Merge for Ethereum, and that was a pretty big rally. I mean, it doesn't look like it on the chart.
[4:09]Like if you look at the the price of Ethereum going into, um, into that 2022 move, into the Merge, I mean, Ethereum like just rallied back up to the bear market resistance band.
[4:22]But after, you know, after putting in a low in, in June.
[4:26]But the point is that when you're living through it, it certainly felt a lot more aggressive than it was, and Ethereum came back down. It did not put in a new low, it just came back down.
[4:34]But when you look at it from Bitcoin, you can see like, like the reason, you know, it felt like a lot back then, but when you look at it now, you're like, all right, it wasn't really that much different than what we've, you know, than what you would expect to see after a major low sort of setting in June.
[4:50]So, again, my guess, as again, it's just, it's just dubious speculation, but my guess is that it's a June low,
[4:58]and then volatility just like dries up in the summer, uh, for the rest of the summer, and you get some counter trend rallies, maybe back up to the bear market resistance band, but you're not going to get any, you know, anything major.
[5:14]And then what usually happens is there's something in Q4 that then finally kind of allows the markets to bottom.
[5:20]I wanted to talk a little bit about this whole like, you know, June low and then rally in July.
[5:27]There, there are sometimes where we don't rally in July, okay?
[5:30]I'm not sure if 2014 was one of them, but we can take a look really quick.
[5:36]Um, so in, in 2014, Bitcoin actually went down in July, but it went up in June.
[5:43]If you look at 2018, we went down in June and then up in July, right?
[5:47]It was down in May and June and then up in July, and this cycle so far it's down in May and down in June. So my guess, dubious speculation is that July would likely be a green month.
[6:06]What's difficult to know right now is, you know, is that low in or not? At the end of the day, you know, in sort of the third stage of bear markets, which is where I think we are, usually DCAing is going to be like a, an okay strategy as long as you're aware that the final low might occur a little bit later in the year.
[6:23]Um, that's often the better strategy. It's just hard for people to kind of make it through the first half of the year without, you know, losing a lot of their money.
[6:30]Because what happens is you get these counter trend rallies by Bitcoin and and they just, they, they basically suck a lot a lot of liquidity out, you know, whereas what I mean is, is people will, you know, they'll buy the top and then panic sell, and then buy back in, the top, and then panic sell and they they'll and that kind of process can really cost people lose a lot of money.
[6:51]And so what I've said previously is just if you ignore Bitcoin for the first half of the midterm year, and then start DCAing in the second half, that's what usually ends up being successful for me.
[7:02]Okay? Like in 2022, I started buying in the second half of the year, right after the June low, is where I started to buy Bitcoin.
[7:09]In 2018, I started to buy after the June low. Now, the market ripped me a new one come Q4 in both 2018 and 2022.
[7:20]But you can see that the lows that were formed in Q4 were relatively short-lived, and then the lows that you might have bought in say like June, July, August, September, whatever, sometime in the post or the pre-having year, they ended up looking fine.
[7:37]But when you're living through it, it feels kind of bad, right? It feels kind of bad because, you know, if you're going out there and you're buying it and you're like, well, why am I buying it if I think it's going to go down in Q4?
[7:47]Well, hey, we don't know if it's going to go down in Q4. We don't know for sure.
[7:54]Um, and then the other sort of the, B is that, um, you know, even if it does go down in Q4, what are the chances that you buy it?
[8:00]You know, I don't really leave a lot of money on exchanges, just sitting limit orders, because I don't just want to leave a ton of money on exchanges.
[8:08]Uh, and there definitely have been times in his, in, in my history with trading where I would say that a low was coming, and then I would be right about it,
[8:20]but the low occurred like when I was at like a kids soccer practice or something, or, or, you know, maybe I was out somewhere or at a restaurant and I just wasn't looking at my phone, and then like the low happened and then it came and went, and then it turned out, oh, I would have just been better off buying it when I, you know, previously, even though Bitcoin went lower, because I didn't actually take advantage of it going lower.
[8:41]So that's another thing that a lot of people have to contend with is that like even if you think it goes lower, which I, I think it probably will eventually later on this year, if, if, if the low for June is in, right?
[8:50]If the low for June is in, I would argue there's a good chance you'll see another sort of drop later in the year, but that doesn't mean that, you know, you have to wait for for that drop to do so.
[9:04]Again, after the June low in 2022, I started buying Bitcoin.
[9:08]After the June low in 2018, I started buying Bitcoin.
[9:11]The market wrecked me both times after doing so, but a couple years later, it, it just didn't matter.
[9:20]So, a lot of it depends on like what your time horizon is, as well.
[9:23]Like if your time horizon is three months, then you probably shouldn't be, you shouldn't be watching my channel anyways.
[9:28]Um, if your time horizon is a few years, then, then that's sort of a different story.
[9:32]So, let's see how this June low kind of unfolds, whether that is the June low, um, whether you go slightly lower.
[9:40]Like, it, it's really hard to know. Like, and I know a lot of people just want me to take a stand and say one way or the other.
[9:44]It's really hard to know, because on one hand, if I were to look at, at 2018, and compare it to 2026, I could say that, all right, well, back then we only got a sweep of the low.
[9:55]So why would we expect any more than that? Maybe we shouldn't.
[10:00]But the counterpoint, right, the counterpoint is if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026, compared to the average of prior mid-term years, like a lot of times kind of in that mid-June time frame, you see a, you see sort of the market drop.
[10:18]And if you look at 2014, this, I mean, this is not, but, but 2014 already kind of had the rally up to these highs, or sorry, in 2026, we already had the rally up to those levels.
[10:28]If you look at 2018, you can see that the market went down, and then it went down a little bit more, right? It went down a little bit more into mid-June before getting that July rally.
[10:40]And that's what's so hard is like, you know, imagine if you sold in, um,
[10:48]in the first week of June 2022, right? Like, okay, maybe that would have been a low.
[10:53]And then the next week, we then like the floor fell out, right? The floor fell out.
[10:57]Um, and and sometimes you get these long wicks down, and then the market just kind of slowly drifts lower anyways.
[11:04]Um, and then and then you get another drop later on. It's so hard to know, right? Like it, it, it is very, very difficult to know exactly where those lows form.
[11:13]But again, when you look at the year-to-date ROI in 2028, or sorry, in 2018 and in 2022, you can see that Bitcoin did take another leg down in the mid-June, and then it took you to about, call it 55% down, 55 to 56% down from the yearly open.
[11:34]is where it took it both in 2018 and in 2022. So, and, and again, when you look at the average, sorry, when you look at the average, and then throw on that one standard deviation,
[11:51]you can see like what I'm talking about. So to sort of rally now would get us right back out of those bounds.
[11:56]If, so my guess is that Bitcoin will likely stay somewhat weak through June, even if the low is in, right? Even if the low is in,
[12:05] I doubt you're going to see us back going up too much before we get later in the summer.
[12:11]Kind of like if you look at 2018, even though we swept the low in June, like Bitcoin, so we swept the low. We went to 5700, and then by early July, Bitcoin was still trading at like $6,000 on this wick down.
[12:25]And then it wasn't until later in July where you got the rally. So I mean that that could be how it plays out too, is that you get like this, you know, Bitcoin struggles in June, and then early July, you sell off, and then people like, oh, well, no, so much for the June for the July rally, and then you get the rally later in July, kind of going into the late July, early August time frame.
[12:46]So, to dubious speculate, my guess is that Bitcoin will form a low in June.
[12:53]It is too early, unfortunately, to know definitively if the low is in. I would say you have at least a point for the bulls that they were able to close back above the 200 week moving average.
[13:01]So that's at least something.
[13:04]And if Bitcoin can hold the 200 week moving average for the next couple of weeks, then I think that would significantly increase the odds of a countertrend rally into July, maybe back up to the bear market resistance band.
[13:17]Um, but it's too early in June to know, honestly, you know, if that has to be the low or not, or if you get sort of like another drop down.
[13:25]In 2022, we actually did drop below the 200 week moving average, and it actually happened in the, in mid-June, right?
[13:32]It happened in mid-June.
[13:36]Um, and this is a good example of like if the low is in here, like if this is the low, you would likely see Bitcoin stay weak for a few more weeks,
[13:46]before you get that countertrend rally into July, right? Before you get that countertrend rally potentially back up to the bear market resistance band.
[13:54]So, I think at this point, it's more of like a wait and see in terms of like an academic exercise as to how this rest of the month is going to play out.
[14:00]Um, every week will obviously have a lot of importance to it. If we can hold the 200 week moving average for a second week, then the odds go up a lot that the sort of the June low is in.
[14:11]So I would say this this coming week is, is going to be pretty critical in terms of, you know, sort of the overall structure of the market,
[14:18]and, um, and how I see it playing out.
[14:22]But those are my views. I mean, again, it's just dubious speculation. The truth is no one knows.
[14:25]I mean, short-term price action is, is a random walk, right? It's geometric brownie and motion.
[14:30]It can't hope to predict it, and that's why we do be speculating about it, because, you know, like, who knows, right? Who knows?
[14:38]But the structure of the market, like the larger structure of the market is intact, right? You, your February lows and your June lows.
[14:43]This is something that often plays out, and you can see that it's actually played out once again.
[14:50]The only real question in the air is exactly where is the June low. Is it in at 59K, or do you go slightly lower later in June, and then sort of work off of that?
[15:00]So we'll see. We have to take this one day at a time. Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up.
[15:05]Um, and I will, and I know we're almost at a million subscribers, so that's kind of cool.
[15:10]Um, we'll see, we'll see if I can hit that. I think I'm going to hit that relatively soon. So, make sure you guys subscribe, and I'll see you next time. Bye.
