[0:00]Happy Monday, ladies and gentlemen, Ruper here and as you can imagine, we've got a hell of a lot to discuss in this daily market update. We're going to kick things off with what we've been kind of prophesying about for a while now and that is that instead of a monetary easing regime, we're going into a tightening one. Um and that's really led by the kind of uh yields or predicted I guess, preempted by the yields on the Treasury market certainly the shorter dated you two years. Um, I don't think many people or really the markets more broadly have this in mind as a primary outcome. However, we're seeing central banks uh in Asia, um that have issues with their currencies. I mean Indonesia I think was one of the last ones up their interest rates. We saw the uh Central Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia up their interest rates. This week, most people aren't even talking about this, we're going to see the ECB raise rates and that's because of the yields on the two year. We won't be long before you see your larger nations uh look to do a similar thing. Um, you're talking about the UK, we're talking about um, you know, the the US, which is a very interesting paradigm giving Kevin Walsh. So markets I think are going to slow under this. They've been very accelerant uh with kind of AI and that build out, but I think there's a kind of dampener that gets put on them. And we'll be talking about that. And we've also suggested that the geopolitical situation is really still to play out. And that's negatively going to play out. And I've also said and I've been absolutely slaughtered as a result of it and, you know, when you put yourself out online, you should be open and expect criticism and push back, even if it is uninformed. Um, just to sort of stick that knife in a little bit more.
[1:49]Um, we've said that you you you kind of can't really believe what's coming out of the uh social media arm of Trump um at the moment in regards to the situation geopolitically. Whether that's the straight open, which it's not, whether that's um, you know, cease fire, which there's not been one this whole time. Uh whether that's the imminent deal, which we had news on just yesterday in regards to the situation. And I I do think that results in a higher oil price or at least an oil spike that probably leads to a demand destructive event. Um and and you've got this kind of catalyst that will also spur on financial conditions, which we think technically are going to tighten based on whether the two year yields are going up. We'll start off with that. You've got this kind of catalyst that is ready to be sprung at a time when you're like is vertical, right? Because it's ignored and and remember Korea 70 60% dependent on oil out of the straight of Hormuz. Yeah, their stock market is just gone bananas. Um, it makes for an interesting paradigm and I think the takeaway for this as a crypto investor is look, we still have our own internal issues to resolve. We're kind of cleansing the space right now, and out of it you're going to get your winners. This is kind of the mature nature of where the crypto market is. Um, but it also has to contend with the macro, which is is going to dampen risk. I think oil, I think everything signals it and we'll look at that in relation to the Cosby, how many Koreans own crypto. Got news out of the UK. UKPM Stamer to buy 400 million of AI chips. I mean, you know, could they be later to the party and then we'll get back to crypto. It's looking at some really interesting things on my Patreon, obviously technically we've called this rather well. Um, we don't always call it well, by the way, but uh, certainly technically we we we've got this spot on and we're saying actually you're going to get lower prices. I put out a message yesterday on Twitter saying, look, probably don't buy this dip. Um, and first of all you get the crowd, oh, is this financial advice? If you want to take your financial advice off some guy on the internet sharing his opinion with you, that's on you, that's not on me, we're not a financial advisor. Um, but the the the anger and I have been victim of those kind of emotions with Mark, it's still am, by the way. Um, the kind of anger that I was met with really I think he's telling in regards to the fact that there's probably more downside to come. You know, we need that depression talking about the Wall Street shit shit to kick in. So, a lot to get into. Um, most people aren't even looking at the fact that the European Central Bank is up in interest rates, this uh, week. In fact, they're going to be doing that on the 11th. What are we on today? The 8th. So, 10th is, uh, sorry, 9th is tomorrow, 10th. So, you're talking about Thursday. We've got the EU main refinancing rate. Now, the current rates are at 2.5 where they've got rates projected to go is 2.4. And that makes all the sense in the world and we've said this is coming if you look at some of your European countries as far as their bond market is concerned. So, right now, if we look at the Germans, their rate as far as a two years is concerned and remember, uh yields, I'll just show this, will proceed. interest rate. So, they've got it at 2.15 because the European Bank sets it for the whole of Europe, which is kind of why Europe, you know, it does does it work that if you think about Europe as a whole, you've got lots of different demographics, lots of different internal, um, sort of makeups of countries. So, to blanket Central Bank rate then I think is I would rather a little bit more independence for those countries. Obviously, here in the UK we supposedly have that independence. Um, but never went through with it. Anyway, we're not going to get on onto that. So, you're talking about 2.15 for your, uh European rate. They're looking to up it to 2.4. You've got your German yields at 2.7. Remember, this this leads, right? This leads interest rates in every sense. You know, you can see they start to up it here, it has to follow. They lower it, it has to follow. Um, and remember this is it says a German, but it's really the the ECB which is is the German interest rate. So, so I think this is going higher. I think it's probably going to come back to 3.3. Your Italians, very similar story. And your French. Um, and you are going to get this. I mean, the Oz is already up in interest rates, right? Why are they doing that? Well, we know why. Uh, we got the UI and T. I it's, you know. Proceeds. So, the the scary thing, and I think the dollar also points to this is is is you're going to get that in the US. You're going to get that in the UK. And the dollar points to that, also leaning on risk off. So there are huge opportunities in all of this, not only to buy crypto cheaper if that's what you want to do, but also to to play on cryptos that are effectively here to solve the monetary issue. Um, through stable coin facilitation. It's interesting this industry that was meant to combat the evil fiat system is actually doing more to propagate into combat it. Um, had a had a comment from a Patreon and he says, is it is there any good news? And there is, in the fact that, look, this is going to create major opportunities. Um, so yeah, dollar I think points to all of this. I don't I don't think anybody's even talking about the ECB, so much going on right now. And certainly if you're a crypto, you're kind of focused on like micro strategy, Zach, you know, some of the happenings and they're kind of internal. Um, but you know, worth paying attention to. We're we're on this kind of high hiking cycle. I think largely that's going to continue and I I think you're going to see an escalation of this situation as a whole. So we've got all prices spike over 4% as Iran and Israel trade strikes. Uh this is taking place overnight. So Iran and Israel have traded strikes for the first time since the Middle East sea fire came into effect in April. Both the US and Iran have been firing at one another during this whole sea fire. Um, the US President Donald Trump has been briefed on renewing fighting between Iran and Israel. I know he made some comments yesterday talking about how, um, you know, he he wasn't very happy with Israel. Look, I watched the Kingdom of heaven yesterday, okay? And if you understand that region and you understand that you know, the fight that is really taking place there. And this is why I've actually been quite, I guess critical of Trump is, I don't think this war is about America, okay? And I think he was supposed to be an American first president. Okay? Um, but if you understand that region and the historic region and some of you may know, I I, you know, I won't necessarily share uh in depth what religion I believe in, but if you're first of the book, we all have a very similar at least starting lineage, okay? So, you get the sense of that region through that. And um, you know, there there's something going on that when you talk about oil prices and things like this, it kind of trumps that. So, just just just part of the pun, just to make that clear and I I don't think you can believe really what Trump's saying on this situation, um, broadly, but then again you got to remember he's the president of the free world, right? So, what he says has sway and he can, if he needs to, um, really move things. So, he said he wasn't very happy. He said he was going to ask Israel not to strike. It seems like they've not done that and they've retaliated. Um, I don't know the full ins and outs. Uh the Israeli Air Force says it conducted strikes in Western and central Iran. Um, so clearly Israel didn't give a uh whatever about Trump calling the shots today, huh? Yeah, pretty much. And and that's my comment about that region. Um, again, if you're if you're a person of the book, you you'll understand that, you know, we whether it's Muslim, whether it's, you know, um, Jewish, whether it's Christian, we all have obviously your your obviously the Abraham, Isaac and Jacob lineage, it's a little bit different, but in terms of the branches and you can sort of trace all religions through that. But it's, you know, that you'll understand what's kind of going on there more broadly. So this, of course, is going to wear on markets. Are we seeing that with the Cosby? Last thing we looked at was this rising wedge. That still has a little bit of downside to go. Is this pull back a severe and is this the kind of chickens coming home to roost? Is that the saying? I don't know. So 20% pull back there. This is nearly at 16. If it gets here, we've had the same pull back as when this war started. Okay? And you you saw markets close down and then, you know, Trump's quickly gone, okay, well, we need to fix this. constantly looking for at least short term tops in this. And I thought we had one here. Look, this looked very range, very choppy to me, but then of course, you had your kind of Liberation Day 2.0. So, this is interesting. The Cosby certainly interesting and I I've said this is been quite cryptic. I also see problems with the currency. We got to get France to talk about is is kind of spin on all that. You know, I've said Korea, potentially going to be a catalyst for further than for crypto. One in five Koreans invest in crypto assets, survey. in terms of a demographic, you got to give it to the Koreans in terms of adopting technology before anybody else. I mean, they've always been on point with it. You know, you look at technologies historically, the Koreans have led in terms of adoption. Now, if and we're seeing some interesting things like reports of people abandoning insurances to buy the Cosby at these kind of prices. If, um, you know, there's there's an issue with this a force or or a drive for liquidation, people need money, I think crypto's going to bear more of the brunt of that. And and and to me, you know, crypto's Bitcoin's in a down trend, I was looking at the total market cap like external to stable coins and then USDT dominance, which we said, look, it's made our initial short-term target. Eventually, you might want to go into your all-time highs. Um, and you've got that with an already down trending crypto market, you know, you you you you're potentially looking at further downside. Have I got it on here? Um, market is stable.
[12:19]We're not going to go there. We're not going to go that far. Um, yeah, we've still got lower targets for Ethereum and the market more broadly. So, could be a bit of a catalyst, but also over the weekend what Trump had also said about, um, potentially looking to create this public private relationship with AI. He's going to do that because there's a lot of pressure on that and he's kind of championing of it and, you know, he's going to do that to effectively, I think try to win voters. We got some news here, be all bit pathetic because of who it's come from from, uh, to buy 4 million of AI chips. Wow. Finally getting on board with the race. Well, we've got a huge problem here with our energy. We got the most expensive energy I think in the world, or one off. Okay, what do you need to facilitate all of this? Um, okay, why have we got that? Well, it's just planned demolition is what they've done to us here. Um, you know, you look at the UK's kind of status, what it was to what it is now, it's just, you know, that's going to keep happening. Um, so yeah, I I still think it was in a downtrend. I I do think there's lower legs to come. I think you've got this macro scenario to play out. I I can still see oil getting into $150 a barrel on the kind of escalation of this situation. It's not going to kill AI, it's going to pause it. Um, and then it will come back with a bang. They'll probably be some sort of event, demand destructive event and then they'll sort of turn everything on and the fit systems is ultimately only going one way, ladies and gentlemen. And actually they're going to introduce crypto to try and solve some of those issues, which is a major opportunity. Okay, that's it from me. Um, we're going to watch the markets more broadly as they open today. Just, I think the the the the best thing to do is, look, if you hold crypto long term, you're fine. Even though I don't largely agree with Rao on most things. I think he's he he's part right in terms of, look, just huddle through if you need to, if you don't think you can time the markets. I know from my personal, we're we're never going to call the perfect top and perfect bottom. We got lucky I think, or there was an element of luck paired with technically what we were looking at back in 2023 for most cryptos and certainly Bitcoin. Um, but we were a little bit later get out, but today I can buy the cryptos that I had 20, 25% discounted. Um, and I can offer that opportunity to you guys potentially. Um, if you want to become a patron, there's a link in the description. Huge influx of members, it's great to see. Long may it continue. Um, you know, the financial game is stacked against you. I think if you take Stanley as approach, you don't just invest in 50 mediocre stocks, you invest in two or three asymmetric bits, you'll reign victorious. Um, and you'll move that needle for you and your family. That's it for me. I'm going to love and leave you. Thanks everybody for watching. See you all in tomorrow's daily market update.
