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Does Fractal + Moving Average Strategy Still Work in 2026?

BinaryTrader

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[0:03]Simple indicator combinations are everywhere and most of them look great until market conditions change.
[0:03]So today, I'm testing whether the fractal plus moving average crossover still produces structured entries in 2026.
[0:03]I set the period of the first moving average to three, use SMA is type, set color to white and make the line thicker.
[0:03]I set the period of the second moving average to seven, use SMA is type, set color to yellow and make the line more visible.
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[0:03]Simple indicator combinations are everywhere and most of them look great until market conditions change. So today, I'm testing whether the fractal plus moving average crossover still produces structured entries in 2026. I use regular candlesticks and set time frame to one minute. I set trade duration to one minute as well. Among indicators I choose fractal and two moving averages. I set the period of fractal to three. I set the period of the first moving average to three, use SMA is type, set color to white and make the line thicker. I set the period of the second moving average to seven, use SMA is type, set color to yellow and make the line more visible. I choose instruments with favorable payout conditions. I start looking for trade entries. A red fractal is already printed, showing a possible reversal to the upside. The fast moving average represented by the white line is about to cross above the slow moving average, which is the yellow line. It is important that the fractal print and the cross are close enough to each other. If they were far apart, I would skip the signal. We also had a clear bearish move before this, so price is not just ranging randomly in a narrow channel. When it does, the signal is better to be skipped. I wait for the current candle to close, so it confirms the cross of the moving averages. There is also enough room before the previous resistance level, so the trade is not immediately running into resistance. The crossover is confirmed, I placed a buy trade.

[1:37]Now let's wait for the trade to play out. Price is pulling back slightly, which is normal before the initial move builds up momentum and continues upward. This can actually be beneficial because it sometimes leads to a slightly better entry price. The same setup actually appeared twice recently, a bullish example here and a bearish one.

[2:02]So far price is moving nicely above the moving averages, which is a good sign. Price is starting to recover now. There is an earlier support level, but the previous bearish move already broke below it, so it is no longer relevant for this trade. Let's see if the move holds.

[2:24]Price is holding above the moving averages and continues to move upward.

[2:32]The trade closed in profit. If you'd like to explore the strategy, the platform I use is linked in the description. Now I look for the next entry. A green fractal might print here and the cross could happen, creating a bearish setup. But the question is whether it should actually be taken. There is a recent support level close to the entry, so I skip this trade. Here we have a longer running downtrend, so I zoomed out the price chart to see the overall structure. There is a strong support level here, where price bounced up sharply. A potential bullish setup is forming, and this level provides additional confirmation. Now I wait for the current candle to close. If a red fractal prints, I place a buy trade. There it is. I entered the trade. The cross is not fully confirmed yet, but the previous candle was strong. Price would have to move down significantly to invalidate the cross, which is unlikely. There is a slight pull back now, but that is completely normal. We saw the same behavior in the previous trade. More importantly, the strong support level gives additional confidence to accept the signal slightly earlier this time. There is still plenty of room for price to move up before the previous resistance level is reached. There were some bad signals in the past because price was in consolidation. During such periods, many moving average crosses appear in a short time, so I avoid these setups. However, the signal at the support level was a keen one, although confirming it would require deeper analysis of earlier price action. For now, I focus on the current trade.

[4:17]The trade has closed. The cross is now fully confirmed, and price will likely continue upward. However, I look for the next entry. Let's zoom out for context. The consolidation zone before the drop can act as resistance again. This supports the bearish setup currently forming here. The green fractal is already printed, and the current bearish candle may cause the moving averages to cross. I wait for the current candle to close.

[4:48]The current candle is still pushing lower and looks quite strong. It may end up forming a bearish engulfing candle. If the crossover confirms, sell. The trigger candle is quite large, but price is still far from the previous support level, so there is room for the move to continue. The initial move was very strong. Let's see how the trade develops.

[5:16]Price tries to move up here, but the candle is still bearish. There is still time left, and in this type of trading, the direction at expiration matters more than the size of the move. You can see the fight between buyers and sellers here. The market is alive. The trade closed in profit. Let's look for the next entry. Another bearish setup might form here soon, but market structure is important here. Price is at the same supply zone where it was previously rejected and started the last downward move. This supports the setup currently forming. In the recent price action, we can also see a good bearish signal and a failed bullish one. In the bullish case, the gap between the moving averages widened significantly and the candles triggering the crossover became gradually weaker. These are signs of a weaker entry. Now I wait for the fractal to print. There it is. Now let's see if the moving averages cross. Be aware that the order is not always fractal first, then crossover. Sometimes the crossover happens earlier. That is not necessarily bad, but those setups are usually riskier and require more consideration of the market structure. Now I wait for the MA cross.

[6:35]The crossover is confirmed. I placed the sell trade. The trigger candle was very strong, so it already covers a large part of the move toward the previous support level. That means the remaining move during the trade might be smaller.

[6:55]After the strong initial move, price slows down for a moment, which is completely normal after such a strong trigger candle. Selling pressure is still there. In this type of trading, the direction at the expiration matters more than the size of the move, and there is still time for the move to develop.

[7:25]This level seems to be holding for now.

[7:30]This trade closed in profit, and that concludes today's session. In the next video, I will show situations where this strategy gives signals that look perfect, but should actually be skipped. Subscribe and stay tuned for more examples with this fractal plus moving average strategy. The platform link is in the video description as usual. Trade responsibly and I'll see you next time.

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