West Asia in Turmoil | Implications for India's Energy and Security | Beyond Classroom

[0:04]Welcome to Beyond Classroom program. Dear friends, the topic of discussion is West Asia Turmoil and its impact on the energy security in India. Hum log dekh rahe hain, aur ye pichle do hafte se, lagatar jis tarah se Israeli forces aur American forces attack kar rahi hai Iran par, usse world ki supply chain disturb ho rahi hai. But iske piche karan kya hai? Why this war is happening? What is the root cause? Hidden agenda kya hai? And so-called propagated agenda kya hai, aaj janne ki koshish karenge. And how it will impact India and the other countries? Especially India ke liye kya security crisis ho sakti hai? Agar ho sakti hai to uske paas alternative options kya hain? Aur hum Middle East ke alawa aur kahan-kahan se crude oil import karte hain, fertilizers kahan se late hain? Aur aur kaun-kaun si wo cheezein hain jo hum import karte hain? Iska long term mein India ki economy mein kya impact ho sakta hai? To discuss all these factors we have the Next IAS panel and briefly I will introduce the panel. We have Mr. Mohit Sharma, expert of the General Science and the Disaster Management. We have Dr. Vibhaja, expert of Economy and we have Dr. Piyush Chobe, expert of the Political Science and we have the Ravi Ravi expert of the our current affairs. So and dear friends, I am B. Singh. To Ravi Kaushik, aapka aaj kafi test hone wala hai. And aap log ye dekhte honge ki lagatar, ye koi nayi baat nahin hai. This West Asia, Middle East, ye lagatar is tarah ke conflict mein rehta hai. Pehle Iraq war tha, Lebanon tha, Syria tha, fir Israel, fir Hamas and then Iran. Because this is the energy center. World ka energy center hai. And oil and gas field is still the most important energy resource of the world. India ho, China ho, Pakistan ho, Bangladesh ho, European countries ho, chahe koi bhi ho, sabki energy yahin se aati hai. Aur ye supply chain break ho rahi hai kyunki in sabka movement hota hai do routes se, bahut hi narrow routes hain. Ek route yahan se nikalta hai Straight of Hormuz se jo Persian Gulf ko connect karta hai Arabian Sea se aur dusra Suez Canal wala route hai. Aaj janne ki koshish karenge ki iske kya impact ho rahe hain. To sabse pehle to Piyush ji ye question aap se hi hai mera, ki ye war ho kyun raha hai? What is the reason behind this war? Okay. Vaise it has a history basically, lekin main history na bata ke jo current context hai main us par aata hoon. So there was a ongoing negotiation between Iran and United States of America with the help of Oman basically. And the core agenda of the discussion was basically Iranian nuclear program. Because Iranian nuclear program may create a existential threat to the era, to the Israel. And destabilize the entire region. And one of the reason is ki Iran is more involved with the proxies, technically they are terror groups basically. So any kind of spill over of nuclear technology to them, will be very devastating impact. So Israel because of its it imposes or poses a existential threat and instability of the region, they want to completely eliminate the nuclear program. That was the one of the reason. The second important reason is the you know, new stockpile of ballistic missiles, missile program of Iran. So Trump in multiple statements says that it has a capacity to reach up to the US basically. So this missile program has to be eliminated, this was another important part. And the third important part was the you know, the overall Iran, this is very interesting, the overall Iran impact in the region has been, impact has been scaled down. How it has been done that is interesting to understand. Like first was Syria. Now the Syria, which was a very close ally of Iran, is remained no more a strategic factor over there. Even in case of Lebanon, with the because of the earlier war, they lost the strategic depth toward they had earlier basically. Apart from that, with with the 12 day war or in which basically genocide was happened at that time, it has completely break the access of resistance what Iran has made over there. So the Iranian position in the region was has very scaled down. So the American idea was that ki in the region Iran is very weak. And this is the right time to enter into it. So once we will eliminate the top leadership, once we will eliminate the top leadership and Iran will come on the negotiation table. And we'll push these two agendas. But once they started negotiation, things went different. Iran was not ready to you can say completely eliminate his nuclear program. Because Iran believed that it is a sovereign right of Iran. Maybe there could possible of negotiation over the stock pile of the enriched uranium. Iran completely denied over the missile its missile program. And definitely in case of regional security, I would say a very interesting thing that Iran changed its role. Earlier Iran was playing a player of important actor to dominate. Now it want to play a important actor as a disruptor of the region. And you can say the way Iranian strategy is you know in the region is they are attacking over the all US bases and targeting the state of Hormuz. So it it want to re-establish its image as a regional disruptor rather than a dominant power basically. Do you also see the ideological conflict between the Iran, Israel? Look, ideological conflict is there. But because of the Abraham Accord basically, the way Israel legitimacy was increasing in the region. So Iran was and Iran, it's not only Iran, many multiple countries are worried about the way Israel was making in inroads in the region. So they were more looking forward to push back, you can say Israel. In fact, I would say that almost a deal was decided between Israel and a group in which Saudi Arabia was also involved. So ideological factor I believe it's quite less, but the political economic geopolitical factor is a predominant factor in that. News hum log lagatar dekh rahe the there are lot of the instigations from the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel. They have been instigating to USA ki nahi attack karo bhai, attack karo. Aur hamare aapke allies surakshit nahi hai. Iran ka jo dominance badh raha hai, political dominance to chalo theek hai, but military agar dominance badhega to that is the threat for them. Sabse jo important word mein jo global factor hota hai ki bhai mujhe strong banna hai, usme number one hota hai economic aur dusra hota hai military. Hard power. Hard power vahi hai. So how do you see the economic reasons behind this war? Sir, so there are both sides reasons. As in, kuch reasons sahi hain jo US ke aur Israel ke the, kuch galat hain. To sir, pehle sahi reason pe aate hain. To first of all, one economic reason why Americans went for war is they were worried about continuous bombing by Houthi rebels in Red Sea, which they were unable to stop. Aur sir, wo around 40% of Asian trade is Suez Canal ke through, Yemen ke kinare. Sir, agar wahan bombing hoti rahi lagatar, aur Houthi rebels Iran backed hain, ye to ek known fact hai. Wo to jitne bhi hain, Hizbullah ho, Houthi ho, Hamas ho. To sir, ek America ko ye trouble tha sir, aur to ye trouble aur aur America in the sense sir that American allies also. That they were having India included, hume bhi ye trouble tha. Ki Houthi rebels are bombing the Red Sea, increasing the cost. Aur lekin America ko losses sabse zyada the because maximum trade jo hota hai, jo Asia aata hai, wo American sources aate hain ya European sources through America. Ek second reason jo Israel ke liye genuine tha wo ye tha that agar Iran normal nuclear program bhi develop kar le, jaise sir bata rahe the, to sabse pehla nishana to Israel hi hai. Yes, existential. Han, sir. And then sir what happens is, today's world, ek sir chhoti si baat isme bataunga. That today's world is heavily based on financial market. Abhi hum dekh rahe the sir kaise gir raha hai. Right. And sir, ek ek bahut interesting cheez hai sir. That till 1991, for one rupee real asset, jaise sir agar hum mein koi hum maan lijiye koi Next IAS ke share kharidein. To wo kya kharidenge ki Next IAS ki real value kya hai? Us hisaab se share ki value hogi. To real value will include our plants and machinery, building and our goodwill in the market and all. To sir, us hisaab se 1991 tak 1:1 ka ratio tha. Ki ek rupiya real value, to ek rupaye ka share bik raha hai. Aaj sir wo ratio, according to IMF, 1:3.6 ho gaya hai. Ek rupaye ki real value pe teen rupaye 50 paise ka share bik raha hai. To sir, everybody is worried ki jiske bare mein kharab samachar aayega, uske yahan se paise nikalenge fatfat and the market will collapse. To Israel mein ye worry tha sir that if nothing is done to stop Iran, or if they are even able to develop an enriched uranium, world will understand, the investors will understand ki ab ye log khatre mein hain. And massive money will come out of Israel. To sir, unke liye ye ek economic existential challenge tha. Aur sir, ye to positive baatein thi. That because which kind of justified to nahin bolunga sir, but ye hai that it was to some extent the reason they could have gone for it. Ab sir, kuch negative reasons bhi hain. Agar hum US aur Israel dono ko dekhein, ek-ek karke sir main kuch data batata hoon. American fiscal deficit at 6%. American unemployment rates are low, but inflation is 3%. Unka sir jaise 2% upper limit hai, 2 + - 2, 3, 3.6 pe chal raha hai sir. Tariff ka fayda hua nahin hai Trump ke regime mein koi khaas. Jagah-jagah, in fact, Taco ek term aa gaya Trump always chickens out. Ye to bahut chala. To Taco is very famous. To sir, ye hua nahin. Ek aur bhi cheez hai sir, the the the GDP growth of US in last quarter was 0.7%. So, ye sab bad news aa rahe hain economy pe. Saath mein sir US mein aayin Epstein files. So, automatically that's a bad news. Ye economy nahin tha, ye to alag cheez thi. Israel mein bhi sir, waise hi, 21% contraction economy ki thi 2023 mein, Hamas war mein. Aur sir, logon ka ek war fatigue hota hai. To Hamas war ke saath wo war fatigue settle ho gaya tha. Dusra sir, unka Israel fiscal deficit 5%. Aur unki debt to GDP ratio 72%. To sir, ye kya tha ki the ab sir, as a leader, you feel the pressure. Ab dekhiyega sir, India se bhi paise bahar gaye hain. But aaj main ye with from Beyond Classroom ye batata hoon that jis din sir mamla theek hoga, sabse pehle India mein paise aa jayenge. Uska reason hai sir, paise jaane to hain hi, jab koi bhi galat samachar aayega, to duniya bhar se investor paise kheechte hain bahar. Right. Par sir, paise aate kyun hain? If a country has controlled fiscal deficit, controlled current account deficit, controlled inflation and decent GDP growth. With a stable polity, like aapki sarkar mein koi khatra nahin hai. To sir, investors aapko trust karte hain. Ab sir, Israel aur US dono mein ye cheezein missing hain abhi. So, they thought what is the best way to divert attention? Now, another that one way is attack a country. Ab sir, us pe to sir expert hain, sir batayenge. Par sir, middle of the discussion mein ye attack hua. Like Iran had not, in fact, Oman ke foreign minister ne yahan tak kaha that we are reaching a conclusion. On on 26th of February, they were negotiating and in 28th of February, they started the attack happened. To sir, mujhe lagta hai positive reasons bhi hain, negative bhi hain. Aur saath mein economy ka ek aur factor hai sir, mujhe aisa lagta hai, agar I can be wrong in this was but whatever I have read. That US is gradually testing China. Kyunki sir, abhi kisi ko pata nahin hai ki China ki actual haisiyat kitni hai. Aur sir, China ke apne economic issues hain. Kuch log keh rahe hain China is strategically quiet, possible. That they are waiting for US to become weaker and then they can attack Taiwan. But mujhe ek aur ek ek ye factor ho sakta hai sir. Mujhe ek aur factor lagta hai that Chinese have their own issues. Ab sir, pehli baar pichle 30 saal mein in their next 16th five year plan, unhone growth target 4% rakha hai, 4 to 4. Matlab unhone kaha hai 4.5 to 5, but Chinese language mein wo hota hai 3.5 to 4. To sir, Chinese ke apne dikkat hai. To sir, US ye dekh raha hai ki agar ye nahin, ab sir, Iran Chinese ally, Venezuela China ke investments thi. To sir, US ye dekh raha hai ki hum inke saath chhedkhani karke dekhte hain. If they will. China kya karta hai. Kya karta hai. China mein ek aur naya development hua hai ki uske jo military generals the, usme kai ko. Exactly sir. Kai ko sack kiya gaya hai. Aur there is a internal military, I would say conflict and and a kind of. Wo to kya hai na, fly fight is going on. Itna closed working hai unki ki the news doesn't come out. Haa. Achha ek aur interesting dimension hai iska. Ki abhi jis tarah se Ukraine war ka outcome aaya, it also discredited US to certain extent. So it is a kind of re-assertion of the US power also. Ki what they did in Venezuela and now what they are looking forward to do in Iran basically. Isi context mein I I see the opportunities for India. Especially jaise abhi dekho ki jitne wahan data centers hain Middle East mein aur Middle East ka jitna West Asia ka jo data storage hai ab wo kahin na kahin wo threat mein hai. Aur ye pura Israel region ki wajah se this always remains on threat. And now the international data storage companies wo ab dekh rahi hain ki India could be a better option. Aur wo agar aisa hota hai to there can be an opportunity which may get open for India economically. Correct. To abhi hum dekh rahe hain data processing centers ki announcement ho rahi hai. Visakhapatnam, Chennai, Mumbai. Saath mein sir India mein ek aur development hua hai. Ye isse thoda different hai lekin main isme sir, chuki aapne data center bola aur ye sach mein opportunity hai. India ne ek bahut achha change kiya sir 2021 mein. 2021 tak hamare yahan ek bada hi old rule tha sir. This was a rule from British period that for using any telecom system for household use, you will have to seek permission of the government. To sir, is rule ko for wrong reasons continue kiya gaya. Wrong reason kya tha sir? Jaise call centers establish karna hai, to aapko permission lena padega every year. Aur sir, fir us pe to apna paise wagaireh jo bhi aate hain, wo aate the. 2021 mein sarkar ne ye notice kiya. Kyunki sarkar ne kaise notice kiya sir ki Telecom Department ne apna ek wo nikala notification that now you are permitted to do work from home. To sarkar mein sir Sanjeev Sanyal hain jo unke Economic Advisor, unhone check kiya ki permitted matlab kya? Ye to normal hona chahiye, I can work from home. Tab ye niyam nikla sir. To humne wo niyam discard kar diya hai. Sir, uska natija ye hua hai that till 2021, jo global capability centers hote hain sir. There investment in India was not even 10 billion dollars. Today it is crossing more than 70 billion dollars. Aur total sir, 5000 global capability centers almost hain duniya mein, uska almost 40% India mein hai ab. To sir, that change is meaning that data centers, GCCs. So, and India ke sir, service sector mein to hum expert hain hi. Is Russia for this war ka Iran aur US war ka sabse zyada benefit mujhe lagta hai Russia ko hoga. Directly and indirectly. Perfect. Aapke paas aa raha hoon Ravi. Ek to economic losses and on the other side, economic benefits. How do you see the economic benefits to Russia? Outcome of this Israel, Iran war or the Russia, Israel, US, Israel war? Sir, isme yahan pe Russia ka ye fayda hua hai ki abhi tak pehle to US ka pura focus tha Russia ke upar jo ki kyunki wo war khatam nahi kara paye, peace prize le nahi paye bechare. To unka pura focus tha ki ye Russia ke ab koi bhi ally nahi rahega sanctions jaise Iran pe bhi lagaye hue the. But all of a sudden kya hua jaise hi energy supplies band hue hain. To abhi unhone bola ki jo bhi C ke upar oil hai wo kahin bhi de sakte hain jo ki India ki taraf bahut sari ships aa rahe hain, aisa bataya ja raha hai. To yahan se Russia apna sale increase kar payega oil ka. To again ab jo pehle US sab ke upar allegations laga rahe the ki you are fueling the war of war on Ukraine to ab aap khud hi kar rahe hain, aap sab se keh rahe hain ki aap Russia se oil le lijiye. To Russia ko sir sabse bada benefit yahan pe ye milne wala hai ki oil aur plus ab jo sir ne bilkul sahi baat kahi ki there is another target jo hum IR mein yahan pe dekh rahe hain ki US is not focusing kyunki Israel ka to samajh aata hai sir existential crisis hai. Iran pe nuclear bomb aayega, Israel ke paas hai to dono mein dikkat aayegi, plus Saudi Arabia aur baaki region mein dikkat aayegi. Kyunki Saudi Arabia wagaireh is time open hone ki koshish kar rahe hain, investment chah rahe hain. Aur agar unke baju mein koi nuclear bomb leke baitha hai jo ki bahut conservative hai. Islamic country ek conservative theocracy hai properly. To unhein bhi dikkat thi. But US ka koi directly link yahan pe aapko dekhne ko nahi milega. Theek hai ballistic missile aur wo sab hum baat kar rahe hain, but Iran kyun attack karne ja raha hai uska koi reason nahi hai abhi. Par USA kya kar raha hai sir yahan pe? USA is basically blocking the supply of fuel to China. Kyunki China ke teen major supplier hain sir. Ek Venezuela tha, kyunki uske upar bhi sanctions the aur China sanctions ko manta nahi hai, dusra Iran tha aur tisra Russia hai. Ab Russia wali war to khatam nahi ho pa rahi hai, to wahan se to jata rahega oil. But agar wo Iran ko apne under le leta hai ya Israel ke through se apni subsidiary ki tarah kaam karata hai aur wahan pe Venezuela ko le liya hai. To yahan se kya hoga ki sir dependency of China will increase. Kyunki baki jo Gulf countries hain wo to sari ki sari US ke kehne se chal sakti hain. To ultimately China ki dependence bahut zyada yahan pe badh jayegi. Aur isse bhi Russia ko fayda hoga. Kyunki ab uska akela supplier bachega sirf Russia. To sara oil aur energy need jo China ki dene wala hai wo Russia supply karne wala hai. Dusra sir ho sakta hai ki aage ja ke aap dekhen ki maybe India will also get benefited. Abhi hume pata nahi hai ki abhi unhone ek month ka time diya hai ya kitna again wo sab baat hai ki humne permit kar diya. But India ne to kabhi band hi nahi kiya fuel Russia se lena. Humne kabhi bola ki humne band kar diya hai. Politically. Haan. Politically statement sir. So, ultimately we can also get benefited aur usse bhi Russia ko hi fayda hoga sir. Kyunki Russia ka ek aur bada client kyunki aap dekhiye ki sabse bade importer oil ke kaun hain, China aur India. To agar ye dono client Russia ke paas jaate hain kyunki Venezuela abhi bahut jaldi production shuru nahi kar sakta hai. Aur unka jo oil hai sir wo bhi kafi dense hai ya thick hai. To use pehle to distance bhi zyada hai plus use cost bhi zyada hai to wo hamare liye abhi beneficial nahi hoga. To Russia will get benefited in that format. Russia ko ek aur benefit hai sir. Ki Russia is a big producer of fertilizer also and natural gas. Ab sir, ye sabhi cheezon ka price badhega because fertilizer production dependent hai on. Russian economy will grow. To sir, Russian economy ke liye benefit hai that fertilizer, natural gas. Sir European sabse khud ko diversify kar rahe hain, from Russian natural gas. But wo diversification Middle East se tha. Aur iska main ek aur outcome dekh raha hoon. Jo log Russia ko itna criticize kar rahe the, American, European countries, ab unki dependency ho jayegi. Even Europe will be heavily dependent on the Russia. And sir, that is that is hypocrisy exposed. Ab sir, again, ye politically, mujhe na sunen jo hamein sunne wale hain. Par sir, jaise jab main power mein nahin hoon, jaise hamare desh mein bhi wo ho raha hai. We should take a stand, we should criticize the attack on Iran. Par sir, when I am in power, if I criticize tomorrow and day after tomorrow, Trump being Trump, he imposes a 50% tariff on me. And says H1B visa kam kar dunga. Matlab unhone punishment strategy apna li. To sir, then same people will say aapko itna bhi nahi bolna chahiye tha. To sir, matlab kehne ka matlab mera ye tha sir ki jaise Russia aur America aur Europe bhi hain sir. Inhone duniya ko lecture diya bahut sara. But they should have realized that when it will come on them, then they will realize that exactly what are we facing. Correct. Mohit ji, let us talk on the other part. Abhi hum bahut zyada politics geopoliticals aur economics mein ghus gaye the. Now coming to the military operations. To military tactics kya use ki hai US ne, Israel ne Iran ke against? And how do you see that what India can learn from here? Sir isme agar hum dekhe long operations to Venezuela ka pehla hua jisme US ke forces seedha Venezuela ke andar chale gaye, unke air defence ko paas karke. Same Iran ke saath hua. To sir, aaj kal ke time mein jo bhi pehla attack hota hai wo hamesha air defence system pe hota hai. Iske liye term ek sir, ek term hai jisko bolte hain SEAD attack ya DEAD attack. SEAD ka matlab hota hai Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. And DEAD ka matlab hota hai Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses. To SEAD aur DEAD do type ke attack hote hain sir. Isme inka standard protocol hai ki sabse pehle ye log mahino-mahino, saalon-saalon surveillance karenge. Inke paas high altitude drones hote hain, satellites hoti hain. To ye identify kar lete hain ki enemy ke territory mein where are the radars located aur unki pin point accuracy hoti hai ki yahan. Jab unko confirm ho jata hai ki yahan-yahan radar hain hamare. Fir inka paas jo second line of attack hai wo inka ek special satellite system ke through aur communication system ke through ye radars ke beech ki communication band kar dete hain. Taki radar jo detect karega to launcher ko jo missile jo missile launcher hoga usko wo communication hi nahi kar payega. To radar ko isolate kar dete hain. Jo warna sare radar agar connected hain to usne agar kisi dusre radar ne detect kiya to wo dusre ko bata sakta hai. Ye attack hone se just pehle ye radar ki communications jam kar dete hain. Fir inka ek special aeroplane hai jisko hum log EA-18 Growler bolte hain. Uske andar ek inbuilt jammer lage hote hain sir aur wo jis jis bhi area mein jata hai wo wahan ke radars ko overwhelm kar deta hai. Matlab wo itni zyada electromagnetic noise produce karta hai ki radar ko lagta hai ki ek nahi 50 aeroplanes aa gaye ek saath. To wo detect nahi kar pata. Ab isko jab jo radar hai usko jam kar dega. Matlab jaise ek tarike se radar aapki aankhen hain man lijiye aur aapki aankhon ko aise uske upar itna noise fenk diya, dhool fenk di. Dhool fenk di ki aapko kuch dikh nahi raha. Ab agar aap dekhne ki koshish karoge jab radar dekhne ki koshish karta hai to apni power badhata hai, frequency badhata hai. Jaise-jaise frequency badhata hai to Growler ke andar ek aur system hai jo identify kar leta hai ki ye radar frequency badha raha hai. Wo pin point pata laga leta hai aur uske baad ek missile hoti hai uske paas, anti-radiation missile. Wo missile marta hai. Wo missile jahan se frequency aa rahi hai wahin ja ke hit kar jati hai. To isme ab radar operator ke paas do choice hain. Ya to wo apna radar band kar de. Taaki wo usko track hi na kar paye. To matlab ya to aap aankhen band karke baith jao. Lekin jaise hi aap aankhen khologe aapki aankhon pe attack ho jayega. To do option hain, ya to aap aankhen band karke baith jao ya jaise hi aap aankhen khologe aapki aankhon pe attack ho jayega. To jab radar khatam ho jate hain iske baad third phase aata hai iska jo stealth aeroplanes hote hain. Jaise B2 Spirit iska jo hai ya F-35 jo India ko bechne ki koshish kar rahe the ye log. To unka radar cross section bahut chhota hota hai. Matlab wo radar mein agar jo thode bahut radar bache hue hain. Usme ek chidiya ke aakar ka dikhte hain. To radar ko samajh mein nahi aata ki ye chidiya hai ki aeroplane hai. Aur fir wo aate hain fir wo pin point accuracy se bomb marte hain aur wo sare radar jo hain destroy kar dete hain. Ab isme agar koi radar operator chalak hoga to wo apna radar band karke baith jayega ki jab ye sab planes chale jayenge to main radar on karunga fir main detect karunga inko. To is case mein inke paas drones hote hain jo 6-6 ghante 12-12 ghante ek hi area mein ghumte rehte hain. Aur wo bas itni height pe udte hain, pata bhi nahi laga sakte aap usko. Wo wo wait karte hain. Jaise hi radar on hua, waise hi wo attack karenge. To ye multi-staged ka iska attack hota hai. Aur fir last mein hota hai jab sare radar wagaireh khatam ho gaye to ye apne bombers bhejta hai heavy aur pura carpet bombing kar deta hai. Matlab pura area jo hai nestanaboot kar deta hai. Do you also see the threat to the optical cables which are running under sea? Kyunki is tarah ke war mein agar by chance abhi to halanki jo ladai ho rahi hai air strikes zyada ho rahi hain. Aur sea mein bhi navy par bhi hai but under water those cables which are using and used for the transmitting the data. If those are attacked, is it feasible? Sir, ye ho chuka hai. Houthis ne ek under sea cable kaati bhi thi aur uski wajah se kafi disruption hua tha data center mein aur internet traffic mein. Even banking mein kafi disruption hua tha. Lekin wo data jo cables hain wo ek tarike se global pathways hain. Agar usko kaatenge to sabhi ko nuksaan padega. Ek aur yahan par jo aapne abhi kaha ki ye military points pin point target karte hain. What went wrong when they targeted a military point but it was hit a school and wo school mein apna kitne chote bachchon ki death ho gayi? 150 kids died. Sir isme na actually jo. No no, it was a misjudgment. Nahi, misjudgment to sir nahi hoti unki. Isme do-teen option ho sakte hain. Kayi bar kya hota hai na ki jo anti-radiation missile hoti hain unko gumrah karne ke liye fake radars laga diye jate hain. Jo ki radar zyada signature emit karte hain to anti-radiation missile aake us pe hit kar jati hai. To ho sakta hai ki aisa koi fake radar ya fake system. Somewhere I read that ye jo military base identify karte hain ye bahut purani image thi. Aur us purani image ko inhone military base samajh liya aur usko hit kar diya. However, it was a school. Actually sir, ab isme to newspaper mein narratives kafi sare aate hain na sir. To aur ye bhi ho sakta hai ki jaise ek news main ne bhi suni thi ki ek aisi university thi uske basement mein ye missile vagarah development chal raha tha. To jo real, New York Times ka ye ek news hai, unhone bataya ki IRGC ka yahan pe ek center tha sir. Abhi bhi hai, exist karta hai. Lekin unhone apne compound ko school ke liye de diya kuch saal pehle, 2016 ke aas paas unhone school ke liye de diya. Old information. To inke paas information thi ki wo pura ka pura area IRGC ka hai to inhone IRGC samajh ke use attack kar diya. Isme sir, ek aur cheez jo abhi develop ho rahi hai, ye pehle kya hota tha jo bhi image hoti thi wo human scan karta tha. Aur identify karta tha ki real real time se match karke aur fir ab jo hai wo sara system AI karta hai. To AI mein error to hota hi hai sir jaise hum bhi jante hain. Piyush ji, abhi hum jaise Russia, Ukraine ko dekh rahe hain ki pichle teen saal se lade ja rahe hain and there is no conclusion. How do you see ki is Iran aur US ke war mein how Iran is retaliating, unki strategy kya hai? And how do you see ki Iran will lose the battle easily ya fir Iran bhi unko chane chaba dega. Sir, ye bada interesting sawal hai aur bahut interesting cheez hai is cheez ko samajhna. US ki jo standard modus operandi rahi hai na, uska yahi raha hai ki they go for the air attacks. And with the air attacks, they try to weaken the regime. Then the whole control are force them to come for the negotiation. Now, the same thing what they thought of regarding the Iran. Ki there will be bombing. They'll eliminate the supreme leader. Then the people may arise against them. But there is a strategic shift in Iranian counter to the US attack. And first is more ideological. So, rather than you know discussing about the regime change, they created the US and Israel attack as a existential threat to the Iran. So, a kind of nationalism they try to promote. Ki this is not all about the regime, it is not all about the government. It is all about that these two countries are trying to enlate Iran. So, the I mean, the outcome of it was that ki there was no popular protest emerged after the US attack over Iran. So, ideologically, ideologically, US lost the battle over there. Now, the second important thing, definitely with combined attack, the Iran become a weakened power as a weakened actor over there. Now, Iran is not ready to pose that it is a weakened actor basically. And now he's trying to shift the whole war into a greater regional crisis and greater global crisis. Now, how they are creating it into a greater regional crisis? Like they created energy crisis in the Asia and beyond. Then air traffic issues are also there. They started attacking over the neighborhood. So, what they are trying to tell us that this is not something the US, Israel will attack over Iran and they will defeat Iran. They they are ensuring that the war must create a regional crisis in the entire zone and it force the US and its ally to respond to to respond to that particular crisis. Ab yahan par US ke liye do issues hain. Ek to jo US ke allies hain, unke unka trust deficit. Bilkul. Aur dusra ye ki agar US unko protect nahi kar pa raha hai. To in future, how those countries are going to realign with the US or they will find the new partners? Definitely. Aur Iran apni jo image hai na usko wo reclaim kar raha hai ki Iran is a regional disruptor. To ab mudda ye nahi hai ki aap mujhe hara doge. Ab Iran ye ladai apne borders mein nahi lad raha hai. Iran is ladai ko pure region aur pure Asia tak leke jana chahta hai. To this is a strategic or this is a compulsion? No, no, no, it is a strategic shift from the Iranian side because they know that if the war will remain only in the inside the borders of Iran, they cannot survive for a long. Achha iska ek aur interesting impact hoga jaise ye regional crisis mein convert hoga to pressure US pe rahega ki war jaldi khatam kare. Ab war jaldi khatam karne ke liye aap keval air tarike se nahi khatam kar sakte. You need to go and boots on the ground. Ab boots on the ground fir to wahan to itni hills hain, wo barren land hai, crossing those. Aur sir Iranian military pure West Asia ki sabse strong military hai. Numbers 15 lakh se upar zyada hai aur it is impossible to defeat Iranian military in Iran. US ke paas do experiences to hain hi hain. Ek Vietnam war aur ek Afghanistan. Afghanistan ke bare mein ek wo bhi hai joke bhi hai. That it took Americans four presidents more than 1500 military personnel and more than a trillion dollar to replace Taliban with Taliban in Afghanistan. So, the point is that the point is that if Americans will be forced to enter into that, and they know that they are never going to enter militarily over there. So, Americans earlier strategy ki very easily they will force them to come on the negotiation table. Now it has been gone. So, it's not about that Iran is winning the war. Iran is pressurizing United States of America to come on the negotiation table with relatively soft term, not the hard term what they are looking forward. So, if it continue for the next 10-15 days, there will be ample of pressure. Ki bhai end the war and you can't end without entering into that. Otherwise, they'll further further lead it towards the or convert into a regional global crisis. To energy crisis to sir global hi hone wala hai. Jo air traffic ka hai wo global crisis ho gaya. Aapko ek ek bahut matlab simple sa example de raha hoon ki jo ticket matlab air fair jo tha India se Southeast Asia, US ya Europe mein around 45 to 60,000 ka tha, wo ab double price mein chala gaya. Jabki war exactly wahan par nahi hai basically. Aur oil ki rationing to sab jagah start ho chuki hai. So, agle 10-15 din mein this is going to be double or triple. To puri aviation industry jo hai wo khatre mein aa jayegi. Wo to pure world mein is tarah ki company aur is tarah ke wo. To ab iska asar to seedha rahega na ki aap war ko band karo. Aur war ko jaldi khatam karo. Aur jaldi khatam karne ka matlab hai ki Iran pe qabza kar lo. Ya fir negotiation pe aao to aap apni jo shartein hain wo lagu nahi karwa paoge wahan pe. India after China is the largest importer of the oil. Aur India ki jo oil import hai usme primarily Middle East se aata hai. Middle East aur Straight of Hormuz band pada hua hai. And then Venezuela ka kya haal hai that is also stopped. Ab bach jata hai Russia aur Russia hamara naya partner hai abhi humne recently start kara hai. And the rest is Africa. To African country se aata hai. How do you see the impact on the energy security of India due to ongoing war? Aur kitna ye critical ho sakta hai India ke liye? Sir, isme isme aisa hai sir, to begin with, jo India ke upar impact hai usme pehli baat when it comes to energy security, hum log sir strategic oil pool maintain karte hain. Ye 2018 mein Visakhapatnam and Padur and Mangalore. Yahan se strategic oil reserves maintain karte hain. To sir, 21 days ka oil reserve broadly speaking har waqt rakha jata hai. But latest jo sarkar ki PIB aayi thi January mein, uske hisaab se 11 days ka hai hamare paas. Lekin sir, 11 days is okay because the Russian crude comes in. To around for three weeks, four weeks we are not in trouble oil wise. Lekin sir, gas mein hume dikkat aa rahi hai aur LPG hum sun hi rahe hain. LNG mein bhi dikkat aayegi sir abhi liquid natural gas mein because most of our almost 50%, 55% is coming from Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. Aur wo pura sir straight of Hormuz. Pura straight of Hormuz ki wajah se to wo blocked hai. So, if the war goes another five-six days to sir, hamare yahan gas ki to thodi dikkat aa jayegi. Usme government ne jaise claim kiya that we are allowing Iran is allowing our ships to come in, if it is true, then maybe our LPG ships and LNG ships can come in aur hum bach jayenge. Otherwise, dusra option ye hai sir ki buy gas from US, Singapore market se gas khareedein. Singapore mein gas nahin banta hai, lekin wahan market hai, jiske through bechte hain sir, Singapore market se gas khareedein, Texas market se khareedein. Aur nahi to sir Russia is again a supplier, possible. But ek to Russia ki distance, transportation time is not less than 20, 25 to 30 days. And sir, with American sanctions jo peeche lage. Haa. To humne sir dheere-dheere Russia se kam to kiya hai kharidna. They have not taken very kindly to it. To sir, wo humein wapas wahi de denge concessions ya aisa mushkil hai. But gas is a trouble point sir. Second energy security mein ek aur bhi dikkat hai sir that we have not been able to fully diverse or diversify well to non to to renewables. Ab sir, mujhe ye lagta hai ki jaise Ujjwala Yojana thi sir. LPG ki dikkat aayi. Agar hum Ujjwala Yojana mein do-char saal pehle bhi diversify karke, isme to solar induction choolha ya aisa kuch. Chulhe pe khana banane ke, wapas fayde dekhne chahiye. Wo dekhna padega. Aur sir, in fact, ek aur bhi cheez hai sir. Global level pe jaise main Piyush sir ki baatein bas thoda add karna chahta hoon economics uska. That sir, ek trade aapka hamara already slow ho raha tha. Ab in disruptions se further growth. Sir, between 2003 and 10, 20% growth in trade tha every year. Ye already 4% pe aa gaya tha. Pichle teen mahine mein with wars and so on, ye already sir less than 2% ho gaya hai. Aisi sir, global GDP growth slow ho rahi hai. But more important sir, jab aise attack hote hain aur ye India pe bhi asar padega, to sir, debt to GDP ratio badhta hai governments ka. Kyunki sir, ye attack kya karenge? Ki financial markets mein dikkat karenge to interest rate badhta hai kyunki liquidity kam hoti hai. To jaise interest rate badhega wo India ki capacity ya global capacity to spend kam kar dete hain. India ke liye ek aur dikkat hai sir, apart from fuel. India ki ek aur dikkat hai that fertilizer jo India ka hai wo heavily Saudi Arabia, UAE. Ek aur bhi dikkat hai sir, Iran is our friend. Hamara koi dushman hai nahi. Lot of Iranian oil was re-routed to India through UAE. And lot of our products were sold to Iran through UAE. Sir, pichle 15 saal mein Iran pe sir laga sanctions 2007 mein. Aur pichle 15 saal mein UAE has become our second largest trading partner. Jitne log wahan hain, jo Singapore udhar kaam kar raha hai. wo hi kaam yahan par UAE kar raha hai. To sir, wo now that is getting going to get disrupted jo hamare foreign exchange reserves par to asar dalega. Ek aur bhi cheez hai sir, large Indian diaspora in Middle East. And then the remittances coming from Middle East. To sir, jo hamara current account hai, ek to import ka costly ho jayega saath mein remittance aane kam ho jayenge. To current account deficit pe sir asar padega. Aur sir, capital inflows already weak hain. So, how do we pay back? To sir, India ke liye ye multi-faceted aur ek last word not the least hai sir jo sir bhi keh rahe the, high flying cost will mean that possibility of tourism income to India. Kyunki sir, agar war hai beech mein to people flying from US to India, Europe to India, that will always take a beating. To sir, hamari tourism income pe uska asar padega. Overall sir, main ye dekhta hoon that if the war continues, it is no good for no one, but India will have burden to bear. Ravi, I am coming to you. Jo Middle East countries se jo abhi hum import karte hain, jo straight of Hormuz se aata hai. Can there be a second thought to create a canal like the Suez Canal connecting the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf through the UAE and Oman. Sir, matlab it may not be the immediate solution. But jis tarah ki jo world problems abhi jo hua, ek to Venezuela wala episode hua aur ek ye Iran kuch nahi kar paya. Isse ek to message chala gaya Iran ke jo allies the. Sorry, China ke allies. To China kuch nahi kar paya. To China ke liye jo ek trust factor develop hua tha, mujhe lagta hai wo kahin na kahin weak hua hai. Ki countries may not be able to trust China ki jab hamein problem aayegi to China aakar ke bachayega. Trump ka to objective yahi hai sir to assert American dominance ki main ye harkat karunga aur mujhe koi rok nahi sakta. Bilkul. Aur sir, China kabhi trustworthy tha bhi nahi. Ye hum log to yehi samajhte hain lekin wo global pure world mein wo impression create karne. To ab hum thoda end karein. So dear friends, main yahan par do baatein aur kehna chahunga ki ek to this Beyond Classroom program, this has been very useful for the aspirants those who have been successful in the final list, abhi Civil Services 2025 ka result aaya hai. Bahut sare toppers ne aakar ke is baat ko hamein feedback diya ki this program was highly useful and especially for their mains and interview stage. To dosto, ye important program hai and our focus remains to the topics which are useful for the UPSC. Dusra ki the discussion which we do here. This discussion is purely academic and nothing political. Aap hamare political ideology se ho sakta hai kahin mismatch karein but fact ye hai ki hamari apni koi political ideology nahi hai. We have the academic ideology. To hamara kuch political nahi hai academic hai. To aap humse disagree ho sakte hain, ho sakiye, rahiye bhi, aapka haq bhi hai. Lekin isme hamara ek academic ideology hoti hai. Thirdly, I want to suggest those students who are writing prelims. If you want any topics ki if you give us suggestion ki hume ye-ye topics kar dijiye, this is where you would like to listen us, please write in the comment box, we will help you and we will come up with the discussion. And with this, I wish you all the best. Jai Hind.