[0:00]As we hurtle towards the 2026 US mid-term elections, everyone is asking the same questions. How much influence will the crypto industry have this time around, and how much could the crypto market gain once the votes are counted in November? Well, if the 2024 election is anything to go by, the 2026 midterms could be incredibly bullish. For context, the crypto industry was one of the most powerful forces in US politics back in 2024. That's because it was one of the largest funding sources behind Donald Trump's return to the White House. And this arguably made crypto money instrumental to Trump's victory. This money came mostly through political action committees, or packs, with a very clear goal. Replace anti-crypto politicians with pro-crypto ones. Now, one of the biggest players was Fairshake, a newly formed, officially non-partisan super pack that quickly became the crypto industry's political weapon of choice. Now, I should at this stage probably explain that packs and super packs aren't the same. Traditional packs can donate directly to candidates, but with strict limits. Specifically, they can only contribute up to $5,000 per election per candidate and up to $15,000 per year to a political party. Conversely, super packs can't donate directly to candidates or coordinate with their campaigns, but they can spend unlimited amounts of money on political advertising and messaging. And in 2024, they spared no expense. By the time the 2024 election rolled around, Fairshake had amassed a staggering $227 million dollar war chest. Its biggest backers included Ripple, Coinbase, and Andreessen Horowitz, each contributing roughly $50 million. Now, to put things into perspective, crypto accounted for nearly half of all corporate political spending in 2024, and no other industry came close. And the craziest part is how fast this all happened. Before 2024, crypto's influence in US politics was virtually non-existent. Well, unless you count Sam Bankman-Fried quietly donating tens of millions to Democrat and Republican candidates during the 2022 midterms. Now, for reference, Fairshake didn't appear until early 2023. Little is known about its origins, yet within a year, it made crypto the single largest source of corporate campaign donations in US politics. Now, to understand how this was even possible, we briefly need to go back in time. In 2010, the US Supreme Court effectively lifted limits on corporate political donations. And crypto now ranks second only to fossil fuel companies in total election spending. But get this, fossil fuel companies took nearly 14 years to reach $176 million in cumulative donations. Crypto, by comparison, spent $129 million in just three election cycles, with 92% of that in 2024 alone. That unprecedented level of spending helps explain why Washington's tone towards crypto shifted so dramatically and so quickly. Consider that 85% of Fairshake backed candidates won, while many of those without crypto pack support were shown the door. After the dust settled, an estimated 270 pro-crypto lawmakers took their seats in the US Congress. And one of them was the president himself, Donald J. Trump. But how Trump evolved from being a crypto skeptic to the so-called crypto president isn't entirely clear. For those who don't know, in 2021, Trump called crypto a scam and said its value is quote, based on thin air. Bitcoin, I just seems like a scam. Something seems to have changed in 2022, though, because that's when Trump launched his own NFT trading card collection on Polygon. And by something, we reckon the tens of thousands of dollars that people were willing to shell out for a JPEG may have had something to do with it. Still, it wasn't until March 2024 that Trump began speaking positively about crypto in public. Something else had clearly changed because by July 2024, he was the keynote speaker at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, telling the crowd he wanted the future of crypto to be mined, minted and made in America. Now, who exactly Trump met or what convinced him to go full crypto bro is unclear. But, what is clear is that the crypto industry was no longer on the sidelines. It had become one of the most powerful forces in American politics, sending lawmakers a message that was crystal clear. Support the crypto industry, or step aside. Now, this has everyone wondering what crypto policy announcements we could see before, during and after the 2026 mid-term elections. If you want to keep up with these announcements, then join the Coin Bureau Telegram channel by the way. Because that's where we share the latest breaking news and market updates, all pinged directly to your device, so you don't miss a thing. So sign up today using the link in the description or scan the QR code on screen now. Okay, back to the video. This is the biggest win. So, following Trump's 2024 victory, the crypto industry quickly turned its attention to the 2026 midterms. In fact, some crypto super packs even began preparing before the 2024 election was over. Take Fairshake, for example. On the 4th of November, 2024, just days before the election results were called, it announced it had already raised $78 million for future campaigns. And that alone made one thing clear. This was never just about getting Trump back into office. It was about building a long-term roster of crypto-aligned politicians. By the end of November 2024, Fairshake had raised $103 million, mostly from Coinbase and Ripple. And remember, before 2024, crypto had spent roughly $129 million across three election cycles. Fairshake had already raised an equivalent amount of capital in just a few weeks. Then, at the end of January 2025, Fairshake doubled down, saying that quote, With the midterms on the horizon, we are poised to continue backing candidates committed to advancing innovation, growing jobs, and enacting thoughtful, responsible regulation and opposing those who play politics and stand in the way with the voters' support for crypto." At the same time, Fairshake confirmed it had amassed over $116 million, mostly ear-marked for supporting pro-crypto candidates throughout 2025 and 2026. By July 2025, its war chest had grown to $141 million. So, put simply, in the first half of 2025, Fairshake raised more than all crypto-backed political donations from the previous election cycle combined. And that's just one organization. Other crypto packs were raising funds too. One notable example came in August when the Winklevoss twins, co-founders of Gemini, donated $21 million in BTC to pro-Trump PAC ahead of US midterms. Interestingly though, they chose not to direct the funds to Fairshake, despite supporting it in 2024. Instead, they chose the Digital Freedom Fund pack. That decision marked an important shift. For some donors, party alignment may now matter more than bipartisan crypto credentials, with a growing preference for backing Republican candidates. This is important because, for many voters, crypto policy and not party loyalty could be the deciding factor in the upcoming midterms. Case in point, an October poll found that a majority saw crypto issues as influential in 2026. Specifically, out of 800 survey respondents, 64% said a candidate's stance on crypto was very important. But what's fascinating is that 38% identified as Democrats, while 37% trusted Republicans more on crypto policy, a nearly even split. In any case, another notable event occurred when Trump hosted a private dinner for corporate leaders at the White House in October 2025. Officially, it was to raise funds for a new ballroom, but the guest list spoke volumes. It included the Winklevoss twins and executives from Coinbase and Ripple. Either they all love a good Foxtrot, or they were there to push their policy priorities. Then, in early January 2026, another super pack called MAGA Inc. reported receiving $20 million from Foris Dax, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com.
[9:03]As well as $1.5 million in USDC from Gemini Trust Company, among others. With Trump's presidency set to end in January 2029, these funds could easily support like-minded candidates in the midterms. More on that shortly though. Meanwhile, Fairshake has continued to grow. By the end of January 2026, it confirmed it had raised an additional $49 million from Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, bringing its total to $193 million at the time of filming. And with the mid-term primaries starting as early as March, that number could rise even higher. But again, Fairshake is only part of the picture. A recent report shows the crypto industry has raised about $288 million for the 2026 mid-term election cycle, with $221 million held by pro-crypto super packs. There are also reports of an additional $100 million in secured funding, though that's not yet appeared in filings with the Federal Election Commission. As such, you could say the crypto industry isn't just preparing for the midterms, it's gearing up to dominate them. So then, now that we know how much money has been raised for the midterms, the question becomes, which areas of the political field is the crypto industry hoping to impact? Well, one major focus is the Senate races. Some crypto companies have been backing Senate candidates like Republican John Deaton in Massachusetts. For those unfamiliar, Deaton is a well-known crypto advocate who gave a voice to XRP holders in Ripple's lawsuit against the SEC. In 2024, Deaton's opponent was Elizabeth Warren, crypto's very own Cruella Deville, who beat Deaton by 22 percentage points. Interestingly, Fairshake chose not to back Deaton this year, likely because Massachusetts is safely Democrat, and swing states offer better returns on investment, so to speak. But Deaton isn't done yet, he's since launched another Senate bid for 2026, this time against Ed Markey. Other Senate battlegrounds are seeing crypto influence creep in as well. In Alabama, Republican Barry Moore received a $5 million boost from Defend American Jobs, a Republican-aligned pack affiliated with Fairshake, which you'll recall is non-partisan by comparison. Meanwhile, over in Ohio, blockchain entrepreneur and Republican Bernie Moreno narrowly defeated long-time crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown in 2024. Moreno's win showed how targeted crypto donations can flip high-profile seats. But, Brown plans to run again in 2026, setting the stage for a potential rematch. Michigan also offers an interesting case. Congressman Mike Rogers, a Republican, shifted towards a pro-crypto stance after an earlier Senate run. In 2024, however, Fairshake spent over $10 million supporting his Democrat opponent, Elissa Slotkin, who narrowly won after speaking positively about crypto. That snub didn't sit well with Rogers, and now a new super pack, First Principles Digital, is backing him for 2026. The House races tell a similar story.
[12:17]Some crypto packs are targeting Democrat incumbents who oppose crypto-friendly legislation. For example, Al Green, who has repeatedly opposed bills like the Clarity Act, the Genius Act, and FIT21, could face a crypto-backed challenger. All of this shows a strategic push to reshape power in both chambers. Now, currently, there are 458 pro-crypto politicians, 307 Republicans, 150 Democrats, and one is independent, according to Stand With Crypto. Meanwhile, 177 politicians are explicitly anti-crypto, 170 Democrats, five Republicans, and two are independent. These numbers show a clear polarization then in how the two parties align with crypto. And it explains why the crypto industry is primarily backing Republican candidates. Okay, so far we've talked a lot about US lawmakers, but this begs the question of which specific laws the crypto industry is trying to pass or change? Well, naturally, there are a lot of talking points, but without a doubt, the bill currently in the spotlight is the Clarity Act. Short for the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act. Now, the Clarity Act is a market structure bill based on the 21st century Financial Innovation and Technology Act, more commonly known as FIT21. For context, FIT21 defined which regulatory agencies oversee the crypto industry and how. It passed the House, but died in the Senate in January 2025, never receiving a vote. Now, the Clarity Act builds on FIT21's core framework, aiming to make it politically viable in both chambers of Congress. As such, you can think of FIT21 as the first serious draft and the Clarity Act as the rewrite meant to actually become law. Similarly to FIT21, the Clarity Act essentially splits oversight between the SEC, which will handle investment offerings like tokens and securities contracts, and the CFTC, which will be responsible for commodities and trading compliance. Now, there's obviously much more to it than that, but we're keeping it short for the sake of time and sanity. But you can learn more about the Clarity Act in detail in the video over here, if you're interested. Anyhow, the Clarity Act has been on the radar of market participants everywhere because it sets the stage for, well, regulatory clarity. Not only would it define regulatory authority over crypto, but it would also outline how crypto markets operate and provide clearer rules of the road for crypto projects, exchanges, wallets, DeFi platforms, and more. Currently, the Clarity Act has been passed in the House with bipartisan support and is under consideration in the Senate. However, not everything is going so smoothly. Some Democrats are pushing ethics provisions, namely rules around conflicts of interest, particularly related to President Trump. While Republicans are less inclined to make changes, generally preferring the industry-friendly language already included in the bill. But, Clarity's biggest obstacle so far has come from the banking sector. That's because banks take issue with a provision that would allow stablecoins to offer a yield, something which they claim could result in a drain on bank reserves, which could threaten financial stability. This terrified Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America, who frantically claimed that stablecoin yield could result in $6.6 trillion exiting banks, potentially collapsing the entire banking sector. Amendments were then made to the Clarity Act, but these changes threatened the integrity of the bill itself. And this led to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly withdrawing his support until the issues were fixed. More about that in the video over here. Any case, the crypto industry has argued that the bank's concerns are largely nonsense. White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt explained that banks shouldn't fear stablecoin yields because, quote, they can also offer stablecoin products to their customers, just the same as crypto. This is not an unfair advantage in either way, and many banks are now applying for OCC bank charters themselves to start offering bank-like products to their customers. Thankfully, it looks like the Clarity Act is back on the table, or at least still on it. And now everyone is wondering when it will be passed in the Senate. It's still not clear, and it is worth noting that the bill has already seen a few setbacks beyond the banking sector, such as the US government having its longest ever shutdown between the 1st of October and the 12th of November. Fortunately, in mid-February, reports surfaced of high-level White House talks between crypto executives, lawmakers and bankers on how to move forward. No date has been set, but the fact that these discussions are happening suggests the bill could finally be passed later this year. But its fate may hinge on the upcoming mid-term elections. If it's introduced before the primaries, supporters could be seen as pro-crypto, potentially boosting their financial backing for re-election. But if it's delayed until after the election, its passage could depend on how many pro-crypto politicians are in office to vote for it. So then, with the midterms looming ever closer, what does this mean for crypto? Well, it's clear that political support for the industry is likely to grow. Sitting politicians will want to show loyalty to secure pack funding, while new candidates will be eager to signal their crypto-friendly from day one to win elections in their respective regions. As anticipation builds and investors price in the possibility of clearer, favorable regulations, we could see a rally heading into the midterms. That said, the backdrop is a bit different to what it was going into the 2024 election. Crypto prices have been falling in recent months, and this means that crypto is likely to be less important in the eyes of voters, including those who are into crypto. And to be clear, most current crypto voters are definitely grateful for what Trump did for the industry when he returned to office. But just as many are now getting a bit fed up of his involvement with the industry, as well as the tariff threats and political chaos that send markets tumbling. Let's not forget that his October threat of 100% tariffs on China sparked the largest liquidation event in crypto's history, after all. In other words, Trump may have helped support the bull market, but he arguably also played a role in starting the bear market. And therein lies the other side of this double-edged sword. Even with pack money flowing to Trump's closest allies, voters might not go along. Instead of backing the party that seems most pro-crypto, they could choose to send a message. Trump himself can't be replaced in the midterms, but all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are up for grabs. More than enough for angry voters to raise the middle finger in the president's direction. And remember, it's not just crypto doing the voting, every American gets a say. And whether you love him or loathe him, Trump's second term has been controversial. However, that backlash could end up being bullish for crypto in the long run, if it leads to a more balanced split between red and blue, as far as crypto backing goes. Now, don't get us wrong, right now, Republicans are clearly more aligned with crypto's interests, but that's not exactly a forward-looking strategy. Politics is cyclical and power always changes hands eventually. At some point, Democrats will inevitably be back in charge. So, if the industry continues to put all its eggs in one basket, it's asking for trouble when that basket gets taken away. Take a second to consider that a future government could easily undo much of the progress we've seen so far. But, if more pro-crypto voices emerge on the blue side, the risk of that drops significantly, and possibly even to zero. From our perspective, things felt a bit more comfortable when crypto was a non-partisan issue. Now that that's changing, the industry's long-term future looks far less certain. So, all that we can hope for is clear, durable regulation that secures crypto's role in the broader financial system before it's too late. All right, that's more than enough politics for one day, I think, but we want to hear from you now. Are you excited about the mid-term elections, or are you worried about the possible changes? Let us know your thoughts down below, and please, keep it civil down there, folks, we're all in the trenches together, after all. If you want to see how Trump's DeFi protocol may have predicted the bear market, then check out the video over here. And if you want to learn about Bitcoin's corporate time bomb, then check out the video over here. Okay, thank you all so much for watching, and I'll see you again soon. This is Guy, signing off.
