Trump's NATO threat could be India's biggest defence break | Ankit Agrawal Study IQ

[0:00]Namaskar dosto, dosto, ek cheez aapne notice kiya hoga, pichle kuch samay se lagatar NATO ko lekar criticize kar rahe hain Donald Trump. Aur Donald Trump ka to dekhiye kabhi pata nahi hai, achanak se khabar aayegi ki woh NATO ko chhod rahe hain toh koi badi baat nahi hogi. Lekin yahan par Bharat ke liye ek badi opportunity ho sakti hai. Aap dekh sakte ho yeh khabar, Trump's NATO threat could be India's biggest defence break. Matlab maan lijiye agar yeh formal tarike se chhodte nahi bhi hain, toh bhi aapko pata hai ki Donald Trump koi bahut madad nahi karne wale hain. Kyunki yahan par jis tarah se unhone dhamki diya ki Europe ke upar agar kuch hoga toh main yahan par help karne nahi aaunga. Kyunki jis tarah se woh help maang rahe the Iran war mein, woh unko help nahi mili hai Europe se. Toh isi ki wajah se yahan par Bharat ke liye kya badi opportunity hai, woh main aapko detail se bataunga. Chaliye shuruaat karte hain, dekhiye sabse pehli baat hai ki why is Trump threatening NATO? Kyunki kya hai na, NATO ke jo allies hain, unhone US ke action ko support nahi kiya. In fact aapne dekha hoga UK ke jo PM hain, Chris Starmer, unhone yeh tak keh diya tha this is not our war. Matlab ki Donald Trump ne khud se bina consult kiye Iran ke upar attack kar diya. Aur isiliye NATO ke jo allies hain, woh US ko is action mein support nahi kar rahe hain aur specially jis tarah se Strait of Hormuz ko lekar problem ho rahi hai, yahan par pura disruption ho gaya hai. Toh yahan par recently hua kya tha ki Donald Trump yahi keh rahe the ki aap bhi aaiye, apne ships ko bhejeye aur jo Strait of Hormuz ki security hai usko badhaiye. Otherwise jo oil ke daam hai woh badhte jayenge aur sath hi sath jo military escalation hai Iran ke khilaf. Toh in sari cheezon mein Europe ke jo allies hain, unhone Donald Trump ki madad nahi ki and that is why US aur Europe ke beech mein ek bada trust deficit aapko dekhne ko milega. Achcha yahan par ek aur cheez samjhiye, NATO kya hai and kyu yeh itna important hai? North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 1949 mein banaya gaya tha basically war context mein. Kyunki Cold War ke samay aapko yaad hoga USSR aur America, yeh do pillars the, do pole the ek prakar se aur inhi ke ird gird cheezein hoti thi. Toh NATO ke andar aap dekhoge na toh 30 se zyada countries dekhne ko milenge jaise ki America mein aap par aap dekh sakte ho Canada ho gaya, US ho gaya, fir iske alawa Europe mein UK, France, Spain, Germany yeh saare desh aapko dekhne ko milenge aur recently jo Ukraine ko lekar bhi hua, 2022 mein jo pura war start hua Ukraine aur Russia ke beech mein, toh woh bhi toh NATO ko lekar hi tha na. Ukraine chahta tha ki NATO ka sadasya bane lekin Russia ne yahan par saaf saaf mana kar diya tha. Toh ismein 30 se zyada countries hain aur iska jo sabse important principle hai woh hai collective defense ka. Matlab iska jo Article 5 hai woh yeh kehta hai ki agar ek bhi desh par attack hua toh woh sabhi NATO country par attack mana jayega. Achcha yeh backbone kyu hai? Matlab ki European security ke liye bahut important hai America. US ka jo global leadership hai that is so important in this NATO ke context mein agar hum dekhein aur World War 2 ka jo international order hai World War 2 ke baad se jo bhi international order bana, usmein yeh bahut important ho jata hai jab hum Article 5 ki baat karte hain. Lekin question yeh hai ki Trump chahte kya hain? Dekho Trump ne yeh jo recently dhamki di hai na ki hum NATO ko chhod sakte hain. Yeh koi nayi baat nahi hai kyunki Trump to baar baar yahi argument karte aaye hain ki baaki ke jo countries hain NATO ke, woh bahut kam paisa kharch karte hain defence ke andar. Woh basically US ke upar hi dependent hain. US ki taraf se suraksha mili hui hai, protection mili hui hai, isiliye woh so aaram ki zindagi jee rahe hain, otherwise unko bhi defence par kharch karna padta. And isiliye unhone kaha ki yeh unfair burden sharing system hai. Ki yahan par America hi zyada expenditure ka bhaar jo hai woh kyun uthaye? Sabhi ko equally uthana chahiye. So this is not a sudden decision, it's part of a consistent strategic position. Achcha question yeh bhi aata hai ki agar US leaves NATO, to yeh kya hoga? Iska maayane kya hai? Dekho yeh bahut hi turn bada turning point hoga. Ek toh jo security dependence hai, woh collapse ho jayegi kyunki Europe aaj ke date mein puri tarah se US troops ke upar, US nuclear umbrella, US rapid response system hai. Usi ke upar dependent hai aur agar US isse bahar ho jata hai, matlab Europe ki puri jo security hai, woh bahut bade khatre mein aa jayegi. Fir dusra kya hoga ki strategic shock hoga Europe ke liye. Europe ko ultimately apna jo budget hai defence par woh badhana padega. Independent military capability yahan par build karni padegi, naye defence partners dhoondne honge. Toh ek prakar se yeh itna jaldi toh nahi hoga na, agar aisa ho bhi jata hai, toh aisa toh hai nahi ki char din mein hi Europe jo hai puri tarah se surakshit ho jayega, usko karne mein bahut lamba samay lagega. So that is why it is so important ki agar America chhodta hai, toh Europe bahut bade trouble mein aa sakta hai. Aur iske alawa yahan par jo rival powers hain unko jagah mil jayegi jaise Russia ho gaya, China ho gaya. Toh pura ka pura jo powered redistribution hai globally, woh aapko dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Aur ek important cheez hai, woh yeh hai ki jo US led unipolarity bani hui thi, usko woh samapt ho jayega. Toh kyunki 1991 ke pehle jo USSR ka disintegration hua tha uske pehle to US aur USSR do poles the. Lekin ab yahan par unipolarity humein dekhne ko mil rahi thi pichle kuch dashak se. Lekin ab kya hai ki multiplayer world mein convert ho jayega. Matlab yahan par China ka role zyada hoga, Russia ka zyada hoga, Bharat ka bhi role badhega, European Union ka role badhega. Iss tarah se power redistribution dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin yahan par asli sawal toh yeh hai ki yeh Bharat ke liye itna bada defence break kyun ho sakta hai? Dekho obvious si baat hai ki agar America Europe ko support nahi karega, woh security provide nahi karega, toh ultimately Europe ko apna jo defence sourcing hai usko diversify karna padega. Aur is context mein Bharat bahut bada role play kar sakta hai. Bharat attractive kyun ho jata hai kyunki ek to hamare pass strategic autonomy hai. Matlab hum US ke sath bhi deal karte hain, America ke, sorry, Russia ke sath bhi karte hain, Europe ke sath bhi karte hain. Hamara jo defence manufacturing hai, woh tezi se grow ho raha hai aur jo pricing hai, woh sabse important hai. Bahut hi competitive rate par Bharat cheezein provide kar sakta hai, weapon supply kar sakta hai. Aur sath hi sath Bharat ki jo defence industry hai, woh bhi tezi se grow ho rahi hai. Abhi tak hum sirf importer ke tor par jaane jaate the, lekin pichle ek dashak mein Bharat ne apna jo export hai defence mein, usko tezi se badhaya hai. Sath hi sath missile system ho gaya jaise BrahMos, naval jo shipping ship building ho gayi, electronic aur radar ho gaya, space military integration ho gaya. Yeh hamari key strength hai aur sath hi sath Europe ke andar jab demand badhegi, Europe apna budget badhayega. Toh Bharat ka jo export boom hai, woh dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Matlab hamare pass potential hai ki hum iska fayda utha sake. Achcha ek aur cheez hai, recently aapko yaad hoga mother of all deals ke bare mein kafi charcha hui thi. Toh yeh perfect samay ho gaya hai. Abhi jo existing India Europe convergence hai na, jisme already European Union defence cooperation mein engage kar raha hai Bharat ke sath. Joint exercises expand ho rahe hain, co-production explore ho raha hai. Toh iski wajah se NATO ki jo uncertainty hai, yeh Bharat aur European Union ke beech ka jo partnership hai, usko aur tezi se badha sakti hai. Iske alawa strategic autonomy ka bhi advantage hai. Maine aapko pehle hi bola ki yahan par Bharat jo hai US ke sath bhi kaam kar raha hai, Russia ke sath bhi kar raha hai, Europe ke sath bhi kar raha hai. Aur specially aaj ke fragmented world mein yeh Bharat ke liye ek major advantage ho jata hai. Toh overall yeh samjhiye ki NATO exit karne ki wajah se agar America hatta hai, toh hamare liye opportunities bhi aur khatra bhi hai. Pehle agar hum opportunities ki baat karein to ek to maine aapko bata hi diya hamara jo export hai defence mein, woh kafi tezi se badh sakta hai. Europe hamare liye ek naya market ki tarah hoga. Fir iske alawa technology access, kya hai na ki dekho Europe ke pass woh technology hai jaise fighter jet vagerah ki hum baat karte hain. Toh woh technology Europe ke pass hai. Toh hum joint production kar sakte hain European Union ke sath. Jo advanced defence technology inflow hai woh Bharat mein aa sakta hai, to again isse Bharat ke pass opportunity hai. Aur strategic importance, Bharat jo hai indispensable ho jayega global security mein. Jahan tak khatre ka sawal hai toh dekho ek to kya hai na ki agar NATO kamzor hua, toh global instability badhegi. Conflicts zyada ho sakte hain, Russia ko ya fir kisi bhi aise desh ko opportunity mil jayegi ki Europe ke kisi bhi desh par woh attack kar dega aur uske baad kyunki ab America to sath dega nahi and that is why instability ka khatra badh jata hai. Fir iske alawa US ki taraf se bhi pressure aa sakta hai. Agar hum Europe ke sath engage karenge to jaise aapne dekha na recently kaise Trump ne Bharat ke upar tariff ko lekar itna pressure banaya. All though Bharat jhuka nahi, Bharat apne stand par bana raha, bhale hi hamare upar kitna tariff laga diya gaya 50% lekin jaise hi humne aapne dekha hoga Europe ke sath jaise hi humne mother of all deal ki Trump ko yeh baat samajh mein aa gayi aur turant Bharat ke sath bhi usne deal kar li. Right to that is why yahan par ek to America ka pressure hoga jo ki Bharat ko sambhalna hoga. Fir China ka bhi factor hai dekho maine aapko kya bola agar Europe ko chahiye honge weapons vagerah, to Bharat ke pass opportunity hai to same usi prakar se China ke pass bhi to woh opportunity hai aur China ko to chahiye hi hota hai, woh to opportunity ko turant grab karta hai. Toh iska khatra yahi hai ki yahan par yeh sari cheezein bhi hain, opportunity hai toh iska problems bhi hai. Fir iske alawa aap last mein question ek aur hai jo mere man mein aaya ki jaise maan lijiye agar hum baat kar rahe hain ki America NATO se alag ho jaye, to kya itna asaan hoga? Kya Trump ke bolne se America alag ho sakta hai? Dekho ek to main aapko bata dun NATO jo hai, yeh ek treaty obligation hai. Matlab US ne jab NATO ko join kiya tha na, tab Senate ki taraf se ratification hua tha. Jo US ki Parliament hai jisme House of Representatives hain aur jo Senate hai jisko upper house kehte hain jaise Bharat mein Rajya Sabha, toh unhone isko ratify kiya tha join karne ke liye. So agar yahan par US exit karta hai, toh yeh sirf executive decision se nahi hona chahiye, Trump ke bolne se nahi hona chahiye. Again yahan par Senate ka role aa jata hai ki chalo aap America jo hai isse alag ho sakta hai. Fir dusra ek aur interesting cheez main batata hun 2023 mein, basically Biden ke samay, ek kanoon laya gaya tha. Us kanoon mein yeh bola gaya ki President unilaterally kisi bhi international treaty se withdraw nahi kar sakte hain. Usko agar withdraw karna hai to Senate se 2/3rd ka approval chahiye hoga aur full congressional jo legislation hai, woh chahiye hoga, matlab jo kanoon vagerah hai woh pass karana hoga. Toh iska matlab saaf hua ki Trump agar khud se faisla lete hain to yeh unconstitutional ho sakta hai jaise ki tariff lagaya tha Trump ne, to uske baad Supreme Court mein mamla gaya US ke to unhone usko unconstitutional keh diya. Lekin haan ek aur ek aur cheez hai, maan lijiye agar Trump exit nahi bhi karte hain to reality mein kya hoga? Yahan par de facto woh exit ho jayenge. Kehne ka matlab yeh hai ki bhale hi America NATO mein bana rahega lekin maan lo kal ke date mein Europe par attack hota hai, toh Trump toh keh denge ki hum to humein to koi lena dena nahi hai. Woh Article 5 maanne se mana kar denge, theek hai, ek to yeh hai. Dusra apna jo troops ka presence hai Europe mein woh kam kar denge Germany mein, Italy mein, Poland mein, jahan par major US ke bases hain, woh kam ho jayenge aur funding bhi cut kar sakte hain na, Trump keh denge ki main kyun funding karu, kyun paise yahan par du? Toh ek prakar se ya to exit karenge agar exit nahi bhi karte hain, to yahan par woh de facto madad nahi karne wale hain. Toh that is why yahan par yahi aa raha hai ki Bharat ke liye ek opportunity hai aur Bharat ko abhi se hi ek base tayar karna hoga, Europe se baat cheet karni hogi iske liye. Dekhte hain aage kya hota hai. Jaane se pehle aap sab ke liye ek bada interesting question hai, kya bata sakte ho inmein se kaun si country aisi hai jo NATO ki founding member nahi hai? Iska right answer aap sab jante hain, mere Instagram par to milega hi wahan par agar aapne koi baat nahi. Telegram se le sakte hain iska sahi উত্তর aur dosto jaise maine aapko bataya agar aap UPSC ki tayari kar rahe hain koi bhi batch chahte hain 2027 ka jo naya batch hai dosto 7th of April se start ho raha hai jisme prelims se lekar interview tak ki puri padhai karaya jati hai, 18 books ka pura set aapke ghar par bheja jata hai, personal mentorship milta hai bahut kuch hai. Koi bhi agar aapko doubt hai, problem hai batch se related is phone number par call kar lijiye, meri team aapko acche se guide karegi and use this code ANKIT LIVE maximum discount ke liye.