[0:10]How's it going everyone? This is the first video in a series I'm looking to start, in which case I blend concepts you see on this channel within the current week's price action. Now, if this is something you enjoy, please let me know at the end of the video in the comment section whether or not I continue this series. So, let's go ahead and take a look at Euro USD here and if you're looking at the phases of price, we have expansion down. We'd want to see what the new phase of price is. Do we get a retracement to continue lower, a consolidation, or expansion back higher? So, let's let this next candle go. And does that look like retracement? No. Does it look like consolidation? No, so it is expansion against. So if we have expansion, met with expansion, that is a reversal. So then I want to see this next candle here. Do we get a consolidation and then we can watch the high and the low of the range for either a manipulation to trade higher, or a manipulation to trade lower? Or do we get a retracement back into the range to trade it higher? Or is this met with another expansion to then go run out this low? Let's let this next candle print. And you can see we just kind of have that consolidation, right? We have failure swings on the high and then we have this current day's low. Let's let another candle print. And if we're looking at this candle here, we sweep out this low. We have a nice bullish candle to closure. And if we have expansion into what looks like a retracement, we also have those failure swings off the highs or those equal highs, which is a good sign. So now we can anticipate expansion retracement into another expansion. There we have that expansion candle. Let's see if we get a continued expansion from 0.5 of this range higher. And you can see we do get that, but what are we doing? We are closing back inside the range. So, this is where we can drop down to the lower time frame to see if we can get a new phase of price. Using the daily chart, there's just not enough information to make a determination if we're going to continue lower or higher, right? If we're going to continue lower, we would have preferred a daily closure a lot lower. If we're going to continue higher, we'd want a closure outside this range. So let's drop down to the hourly chart. So down here on the hourly chart, you can see my model did print for that bullish setup, and then we had a reversal here. Now, the things to notice here on the lower time frame when looking into this daily candle, it price here open, trade lower, trade higher and then close back in. Or did we open, trade higher, trade lower and then close back in? Right? And since it did open high, low, close, that is telling me it was more of a bearish candle. Now, ideally, if this candle was to close bearish, we would have wanted to see a lot weaker of a close. Right? We want to see that daily candle close into the lows. And so if it would have closed like this, we then have opposing candles here. And then I can anticipate a shallow retracement to continue lower as we have a protected high right here. If we failed to close below this level, then I could have viewed this as a consolidation, looked for a high to be taken out and then continue lower. Those are the two scenarios that go through my head. But with this bullish closure late into the day, this is now a less than ideal setup for a bearish continuation the next day. So, if I'm still bearish, I'm then going to require more confirmation on the lower time frames to get short. Let's go over this price action here into the next day. You can see my model prints a bearish setup, but we are rather high up into this range. I want to see the T-spot respected or the upper wick form in here, and you can see we're opening above that, which is less than ideal. So, we want to see what happens. We do open, trade higher first, which is forming an upper wick, and that is a good indication of a bearish setup. Now, the thing I don't like is if you're using 0.5 of this change in the state of delivery, what do you notice about this? We're closing over it, so there is a conflict, right? We don't have a weak closure on this daily candle, we're closing over 0.5 of this change in the state of delivery. But we do have that open high that supports bearish price action. So let's see what happens. We have an expansion lower, consolidation, expansion, expansion met with expansion. But we do not form a bullish change in the state of delivery, so price is still bearish. But what do we notice? We have those failure swings. So this is not something I would look to short because we do not have a protected swing. We have failure swings. It would need to look something like this in order for me to look to get on side with a short. But when we have failure swings, that's when I want to see those levels revisited. You can see what does price do? It comes back and visits that level, taking out those equal highs. Now, this is where we could form a potential setup because we don't want to see the current high get taken out if we're going to continue lower throughout this day.
[6:01]So let's see what happens. And you can see, we do react in this fair value up and try to trade lower, but what do we notice? We failed to close below this level that we would need to to form a opposing candle and this level here to form that change in the state of delivery, and then we go and run out this high. So now looking at this high and the phases of price, we have expansion into this high. If we're going to get a reversal off this high to trade lower, do we want to see price consolidate? No. Do we want to see it retrace to continue higher? No. We want to see expansion met with expansion to form a wick on the higher time frame and this reversal. So let's see what happens. And there you can see, we get that expansion lower, and we do get that closure below. So now you can see we have formed that protected high. I anticipate this current daily wick to remain intact if we're going to get a continuation lower. Where would be our targets if we're going to continue lower? We have previous day low. We mark out here as well as that previous day's low, right? So those higher time frame lows here. If I'm looking to get on side with this, I want to trade a swing. And if I don't anticipate this retest to give me a swing formation on the hourly time frame, because we're already forming that upper wick, this is where I can drop down one time frame or go to the 30 minute. You can see this is a bit more clear as we have expansion, we retrace into a fair value gap. And then this is where I could either look to refine this down and trade the fractal 30 minute and three minute setup, or take an entry on the 30 minute time frame, or wait for that new protected swing on the 30 minute. So let's go through a few different scenarios here. Here, I could look to take an entry on the 30 minute. We have formed a protected swing. I can put my stop on the high, and I can be looking for that 2R, right? And to get to R, I could move my stop there. And the reason for that is I don't anticipate price to trade above 50% of this opposing candle here. So that's how I could approach it on the 30 minute, right? You can see expansion, retracement. This could be another continuation entry. As you can see, we have closed below that level. Reach into a fair value gap. Can we get two R to the lows? We can, so it is still valid. And that is how those work. Now, let's say we wanted to do it on a lower time frame. We can come back up here. What does it look like on the 15 minute? Well, zooming in. And we have what? Expansion, retracement. When do we form a protected swing? That same level, once we get a closure below that. Now we could look to take an entry here. My stop on this high or above these highs here, the bodies. And I just need to get two R to the lows, so that works as well. And you can see, now we retrace into a fair value gap. Do we get a closure below this level? No, right? Once again, failed to close below this level, usually the high gets taken out. And you can see in this case, it doesn't get taken out, but we do get the closure below, and then continue. Does it provide any other entries? Right, we get a consolidation here after taking out lows. Do we sweep out the high in the consolidation? We do. And then you can see we form a protected swing. And then that could be another entry lower there. Now, let's say we go and we want to do the 30 minute and three minute and refine this first entry down. What would that look like? Down here on the three-minute time frame, I'll go ahead and select my indicator, move the bias to bearish. And let's take a look here. What do we have? We have that candle 2 reversal, that change in the state of delivery, and we have a point of interest or a fair value gap here. And I'll remove this 30 minute one just to clear things up. What do we notice here? Price already reached into that area. Did it get the closure below? No, so this is not a protected swing. Price then sweeps out this area once again. Does it now get a closure below this level? Well, let's see. We need one more candle, and we do get the closure below. Now, I could enter here, but my stop on this high, as that is protected. But where would I want to target? I can't really get two R to this current low, but that's fine because I'm looking to target those higher time frame objectives. So previous day low there, or the previous day's low there, right? Now, let's see how this would work out. We're just going to remove this, so it is clean. We have expansion lower. Now we want to see, do we get a new phase of price? Do we get expansion back in to reverse and go run the highs, retracement, or a consolidation, in which case we can look for the high to trade lower or to run out the low to trade higher?
[11:19]Well, let's see. That looks pretty good for a continuation lower. We get the closure below. This could be another continuation entry.
[12:28]But let's watch the phases of price here. You can see, expansion, retracement, expansion. Now you can see, we get a little bit of an aggressive move up, but it is met with an aggressive move lower. Once again, I want to see, do we get the closure below? We do. This high is protected. Can anticipate a continuation lower. There we get the expansion lower. Expansion. Is this retracement or reversal? Now, I don't need to know this yet. I can just wait. If I'm looking to frame a bullish reversal, I'm waiting for this bullish change in the state of delivery, and we can make that red to differentiate it. Do we get that? No. So now I want to see if this is going to be expansion, retracement, expansion. I need to get a close below there. Let's see. We don't get the closure below there, right? We can't close below it. What are we doing now? If we can't get that closure below to expand, we are doing what? We are now just consolidating. So the same thing as above, I'm just focused on the high and the low of the range. And let's see what happens. Now we take out the high in the range. I want to see, we have expansion into the high. Do we consolidate? Do we retrace to continue higher or do we reverse? Give it a couple candles. What happens? We have expansion met with an expansion, which is a higher time frame wick, and we have all these failure swings on the low. Do we get this continuation here? We do get the closure below. And you can see then we form the continuation entry within my model to trade this lower. We let this continue. We have a consolidation. There's no way to get on side with that. No way to get on side with that. And then you can see we have that candle four continuation. We reach into a small fair value gap here. We form a new protected high.
[14:33]And now we take this out. So you can see this trend is now over as we are not respecting these candles anymore. And you can also see that by if we go out to the 30 minute time frame, that's when we actually form a bullish reversal candle. So hopefully that makes sense. We can do a quick review. We had expansion. We can expect a new phase of price with a closure like this. We go down to the hourly time frame from this. So looking at the hourly time frame, the main points is we failed to close very bearish on the daily time frame because of these candles. So with that, I'm going to need more confirmation on the lower time frame. We did have a nice open high, but then we just failed to expand. We didn't get anything. We leave these equal highs here. We go run those out here, and we get an expansion lower. This expansion cannot close or form a protected swing. So then, when we fail to form a new protected swing here or validate that, we go run out the highs, and then we repeat the process, looking for these highs to be taken. We go form a protected swing now, and then it's the phases of price, using this as a trend to continue lower to those previous days lows, as well as those projection targets. So let me know if you found these type of videos helpful. They're going to be more in depth on specific examples and specific lessons. But if you do like them, I can continue them. With that, I hope you have a great rest of your day, and I'll see you guys next time. Have a good one.
