[0:00]This is shaping up to be one of the greatest generational wealth creation moments of our lifetime. And yeah, I guess I say that a lot, but we called crowd strike two years ago. Look at what it did. We also did ANET Arista two years ago. Look what they did. We also did Bloom Energy just a few months ago. Look at what the company has done in the past six months. And obviously, Palantir years ago, ahead of the curve. So I know what I'm talking about. And my students in my academy know that as well. And again, as always, mainstream media is going to convince you to run for the hills. Social media is filled with experts. They're telling you that this time is different. So let me show you in this video how smart investors are using this setup right now to create generational wealth. It's not about working hard. It's about working smart. So don't click nothing, don't smash nothing, don't buy nothing, just pay attention and listen. So right now, we're about four, four and a half weeks into this war with Iran. We have negotiations, Trump is basically saying opposite things in the morning, in the evening. Complete chaos and the market could not be more confused about what the hell's going on. But smart investors are using this setup to generate outsized returns. And in this video, I'll show you how you can do the same thing with very little effort. So I showed you this chart when the war started. If you recall, I put out a video and I said, Look, I'm not about to talk about gut feelings or emotions or guestiments. It's all about history. It's all about history. So if you look back at every single war that happened and you bunch it all up together, you get a very interesting stat. And I show you this stat on the first day of the war on February 28. And I said, Look, guys, every time we have a war, we usually go into the war at very good stock market setups. And when we go to a war at all time highs, usually the market starts dipping because war introduces a lot of uncertainty into the markets. The markets hate uncertainty, so first of all, people sell off. So I always said, look, 30 days, the first 30 days of a war, this is where we got a bottom. And by March 3rd, this is literally what happened, sorry, March 30th. It's literally what happened. About a month into the war, we pretty much bottomed, and you can see it on the chart if you put in the S&P 500, and you just splice that on top of the chart. This is literally what happened, 30 days, bottom. Now, it's not about me being a genius or clairvoyant or having a time machine. It's all about studying history. I also showed you that the money making opportunity does not end here in the first 30 days, because the market usually takes a long time to recover. Right now, as of April 15th, of the making of this video, we're back to the old highs we had before the war at 6,900 on the S&P 500, right? But the market is going to continue all the way for the next 12 months to be very, very volatile. We're going to have dips, crashes, corrections, drawdowns. It's going to be a volatile time, because in times of war, there's a lot of volatility. So the next 12 months, by definition, historically speaking, are money-making opportunities, as I said right here, but they will not be linear. It doesn't mean we go from here straight to the moon and you have to invest today so you don't miss out. We may have bigger drawdowns. We may have actually lower bottoms, anything can happen. The next 12 months are where money is made, because this volatility can be utilized to make a lot of money. And a sample size of that literally happened in the past month since the war started. We got into the war right here at 6,900. Then we bottomed about a month into the war at 6,300. And right now, we're at 6,970. So that round trip we just did in about a month, if you actually bought the dip and you actually were logical about it and didn't run for the hill like a brainless headless chicken, well, you've made a little bit of money here. But again, the money-making opportunity does not end. But it doesn't mean you blindly buy the dip. There's a lot of intricacies, there's a lot of nuance. I need you to pay attention, because it's not that simple. This is just the introduction. The risk that we're seeing creating this volatility right now in the stock market, this risk basically stems from oil, okay? Because oil prices are going up and when oil prices are going up, the fear is that this elevated oil prices will elevate inflation, because energy is required to make everything we use. And if we have higher inflation, we'll have higher recession, and then the stock market collapse, and if we also have high unemployment, well, that's stagflation just like we had in the 70s, and that's going to lead to a massive recession and stock market correction like we haven't seen in decades. That is the fear that is driving the current volatility, okay? That fear talks about one specific scenario that happened in the 70s, and we actually had Paul Volker intervening, increased rates all the way to the 20s, and then we had multiple years of recession. But pricing in this scenario based on the current set of facts is a little bit getting ahead of ourselves. In fact, I'll show you why. Right now, every investor has one of three options. I'm not telling you any secrets here, right? You can keep holding, you can buy more, or you can sell. If you assume that you know nothing about where the market is going to be in the short term, if you assume you cannot time the market, you cannot time oil prices, you cannot predict anything, you can just talk about long-term, okay? What do we know? If we go back from 1932 all the way to the current times, what we've seen based on facts and not based on opinions because you know what I have about opinions. Opinions are like buttholes, everybody got one. It's about opinions. Let's just look at facts and data, right? As a long-term investor, you know a few things as a fact. We know as a fact that the average bull market lasts almost five years, and the average return in the bull market in the United States is about 180%. By the way, we're not even close to that, currently at 88% and about three and a half years on the current bull run, we're still in technically, okay? The bear markets, the bad markets where people lose money, the average length is about one and a half years, and the average drawdown is about 35%. So we know for a fact that bull markets tend to last a lot longer and tend to go up a lot higher than bear markets. And that's just a factual statement. If you zoom in on the past 20 years, and I think it's important, because a lot of people say, well, Tom, this is all data from 1932, from 1942, from 1952. You know, let's look at the last 20 years. Sure, let's do it. So the last 20 years breakdown like this. The last 20 years, 16 of them were bull markets, 16 out of 20, okay? One did 400%, one did 101%, 11 years and five years. And yes, we had three bear markets in the middle, two and a half years, one and a half years and 10 months. Now these are the drawdowns we had, 49%, 57%, 25%. This is the latest 2022 one. But here we had 400 and 100. So you can clearly see that this did 500, this did 120. This is unpleasant, but this is life changing. Now, I like to play when the deck is stacked in my favor. Unless you want to play a losing game, which you can, I don't see how this makes any sense. In fact, Peter Lynch told you this, not me. Peter Lynch has one of the most famous sayings in all of investing, which is way more money was lost waiting for a correction, then any money that was lost in the actual corrections themselves. And that is the reason why because it's a losing game. Statistics actually showed this in the most blunt way possible. If we go and we look at what traders, day traders have to deal with, that's the hardest game. You have a 54% chance of success as a day trader, that's very, very hard, right? If you're a swing trader, well, you have a 75% chance of success, because 75% of years are basically more positive than negative. But even then, this is a very, very dangerous game to play, because 25% chance is still a lot. And I don't want to lose my money. But if I look at right here, at decades, 95% of decades are green, are positive. Now, of course, every single 20-year period we had in the stock market were positive, but not everybody has 20 years to invest. I totally understand that. So in my mind, this is the optimum. 10 years, 95% chance of success. This is the optimal investing horizon with the best chance of success and still your ability to fill liquidity somewhere not requiring 20 years. 95% chance of success as long as you hold for 10 years. I think it's a pretty solid case of what Warren Buffett once said, hey, everybody wants to get rich, nobody is willing to get rich slow. This is exactly the formula. It's pretty much buy good companies, be patient, hold for 10 years, make money. It's that simple. Now, let's take it one step further, okay? But Tom, this war in Iran, this is the beginning of World War III. We're going to lose supply chains and oil and everything is going to cast. This time, it's different. You ever heard this sentence, This time it's different? Somehow every time we have a geopolitical crisis or some sort of a in the Middle East, they explain to us that this time is different, okay? Let me show you how every single time was not different. So back in 2003, when we had the Iraq war, the market did a round trip from 1172 to 1112 in 12 months. Basically, point A, drop, bottom, point B in 12 months, just like the initial chart I showed you. The same thing happened in 2022 in the Ukraine War, not that long ago. 4,800, 3,600, 4,800. Again, in 12 months. And that means that every single war was a buy the dip moment, BTD, buy the dip. Nothing was different. It's the same every time, and you don't have to take my word for it. I'm just going to show you because I just showed you two samples here. Here's the whole sample size. This is the last 17 years in the stock market, okay? And every one of those points is some bad thing that happened, a war, a crisis, a geopolitical, a pandemic, etc., etc. All of this. And this is the S&P 500 chart. In those times, we went from 677 in 2009, all the way to 6,900 today. So the S&P did 940% since 2009 just by sitting there with all of this chaos, all of these wars and crises points. And that just goes to show you that the market always goes up in the long term, and betting against it, trying to time it is very, very difficult, if not impossible. Now, here's the thing. But Tom, how can you ignore this because oil is going up, right? Yes, prices are elevated right now. Well, that means we're going to have inflation, right? And inflation is going to crash the economy, and cost of living is already very high, which is true, but get this, okay? Oil does not cause inflation. In the words of the great Milton Friedman, Arab sheiks do not cause inflation. Oil prices do not cause inflation. The only thing that causes inflation, the one and only thing is the money printer. Whoever has the money printer causes inflation. The only thing that can cause inflation is money printing.
[11:38]It's always and everywhere a result of too much money of a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. Governments control the quantity of money, so that as a result, inflation in the United States is made in Washington and nowhere else. Only Washington has that printing press and therefore only Washington can produce inflation, which is a cycle we see every few years again and again. The politicians would love to give you free stuff. They hate to put on new taxes. So they give you free stuff and to pay for these free stuff, well they print more money. They cause inflation, and they blame the oil prices and the unions and all the stuff. Forget about it. If we don't print money, we're not going to have inflation. Oil prices will go up, they will go down, oil prices are cyclical. They're not going to be elevated for long, because guess what? At $100 per barrel, the market is not sustainable. There are no buyers, there is no demand. There is such a thing called demand destruction. At 100 plus per barrel, businesses actually cannot maintain their business model and they will not buy oil because the clients die at 100 plus. If we have elevated spikes of 100, 120, 140, those are temporary, those are cyclical. It's not maintainable. So if you think oil can stay at 140 for the next year, it is literally impossible, okay? But that doesn't mean you blindly just buy, okay? You have to be smart about it. Let me show you. Okay, if you pick a good company, which is the key to this, like a Microsoft or an Amazon, during the worst time you could imagine, let's say the 2009 crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis, right? You could have bought Microsoft at $15 per share. It's currently at 370. You could have bought Amazon under $2. It is currently north of 200. And let's say you don't want to hold individual stocks. That's fine. If you just held the index through the worst time we've ever seen in the index, which is the lost decade from 2010 to 2020. Guess what? The next 10 years did 350%. So you literally did 350% despite the lost decade, which is by the way, a 5% chance of ever living through a lost decade again, which are very, very slim chances. But even then, you make money. The S&P went from 670 to 6,900 since 2009. Since all of these prices were a reality, at the end of the day, despite critics and experts screaming at you that this time it's different, it never is. Every single dip is a buy opportunity. Now, wars create short-term fear, short-term uncertainty, and that's fine, because people freak out. That's how the world works. But historically speaking, from a very cold and calculated place, every time we had a war, it benefited the market, because crisis means opportunity. Every time we have oil prices spike, the worst case scenario is already priced in. Gold prices surge, it's already priced in. And yes, it's okay to take some profits. If you have positions where you're up 100%, 150%, 200%, maybe more. You should have been taking profits just to begin with. That's just good risk management, okay? But don't go off selling everything you got trying to time the bottom. It's not a good way to invest for the long haul, okay? Now, the global chaos that we're seeing right now may scare you, and I get it. But guess what? The only safe haven against the global chaos that we're seeing right now is the US dollar and the US economy. In times of uncertainty, in time of chaos, investors and money flows to the safest place, which is the US market. It's the most stable, and you will see a lot money going into the US stock market, going to the US economy, you'll see the dollar go up. All of this happens every time. A little drop and then climb. The system is rigged, and as long as the US dollar remains the world's reserve currency, and it will for the foreseeable future, because there's simply no alternative despite some shills explaining to you how the bricks are going to replace the dollar, not happening. So back in November of 2025, the market was at 6,900. We're currently at 6,900. So the S&P literally did nothing since November, right? But guess what? The forward PE on the S&P 500 went all the way down from 26 to 20. Why is that important? Well, number one, the stock market is cheaper. The stocks in the S&P 500 are dramatically cheaper. But guess what? This is a chart that shows you the average annual return for the next 10 years after a certain forward PE. And as you can see right here at 26 forward PE, the one we had back in November, you are basically very, very close to zero. At 20, which is where we are right now, you are in positive land. There is no way to lose money for the next 10 years investing at 20 forward PE in the S&P 500. You're looking at an average of about 10% per year for the next 10 years, which is exactly the average on the S&P 500. The entry point is 20 and below currently exactly at 20. So the market has become way more attractive for the long-term investor than November without actually losing a single point on the S&P 500. Now, that brings me to my next point. I just want to warn you that blindly buying the dip is not a good investing strategy, okay? The market can go much, much lower, incredibly lower, they can, okay? And that is not a bad thing. That is a great scenario, okay, if you're smart. If you're an idiot and you just gamble and say, hey, this is the bottom of going, and maybe, maybe you win, but it's gambling, right? What if it drops a lot lower? You don't have any money to deploy. But if you're smart about it, and you're ready for every scenario, if you do not predict, but you prepare, when the market actually drops much lower, if it does, that becomes a great opportunity for you. Let me show you. So if you're just buying in lump sum right now, and you buy right here, which is where we are, okay? And the market drops, you're screwed. There's nothing you can do about it. You just have to wait it out, right? But if you have some money on the sideline, because you've been slowly investing in little fixed amounts through dollar cost averaging, DCA. If you've been putting little amounts, slowly investing, then when the market does this and drops, if it does this and drops, you have so much more money to double down and increase your amounts as we're riding back up. Making you a ton of money and creating generational wealth. The secret is in the dip buying. You have to come into the dip super ready mentally, emotionally and financially. If you don't have the cash to deploy, it's not going to help you. But there is one condition. Let me show you, okay? As much as it is true that the best time to buy is right here in extreme fear, which is something I absolutely agree with, okay? That's not the whole picture. What you need to understand is this, okay? It's important to buy when the companies are small little piglets where nobody wants them, okay? The Palantir at $6 is a great example. And it's important to sell and trim when they become fat and big, when you make 200% on your investment, it's time to trim and sell a little bit of these big fat pigs. But, and here's the big butt. It only works if you do this. If you invest in broad market ETF, such as the S&P 500, you're set, okay? The ETF is going to manage itself. It's going to clear out the garbage, bring in the new superstars. There's nothing else you can do. But if you want to invest in individual companies, so you can have some risk exposure and not be 100% in the S&P 500, well, you have to either pick great stocks, okay? Which is super important. But also, you have to have discipline and conviction. Because picking great stocks is not enough. Let's say that you've picked a great stock, but you don't have the discipline, you don't have the conviction, and now the stock is down 70%. What do you do? Palantir 2022 again, okay? You have to have both the great stock picking, the discipline, and the conviction in order to be able to create generational wealth from long-term investing in individual stocks. In order to do this, I've created two things to help you. Number one, I have a list of my top 15 stocks for free. My top 15 stocks to buy and hold for the next 10 years. It is absolutely free. You can find it right now in the description of this video and in the pin comment. If you want to take your research to the next level and level up along where 30,000 members in my academy over the ROIC Academy, I invite you to join patreon.com/tomnash. We have changed people lives. We have changed people's mindset. We have changed the way retail investors understand investing. This is the next level. If you'd like to level up and get ahead of the crowd and get everything you need to be a successful long-term investor, join our academy. We'd love to see you there. Thank you so much and I'll see you in the next one. Peace.
